Importance A major challenge for drug development in neurodegenerative diseases is that adequately powered efficacy studies with meaningful end points typically require several hundred participants and long durations. Prion diseases represent the archetype of brain diseases caused by protein misfolding, the most common subtype being sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (sCJD), a rapidly progressive dementia. There is no well-established trial method in prion disease. Objective To establish a more powerful and meaningful clinical trial method in sCJD. Design, Setting, and Participants A stratified medicine and simulation approach based on a prospective interval-cohort study conducted from October 2008 to June 2014. This study involved 598 participants with probable or definite sCJD followed up over 470 patient-years at a specialist national referral service in the United Kingdom with domiciliary, care home, and hospital patient visits. We fitted linear mixed models to the outcome measurements, and simulated clinical trials involving 10 to 120 patients (no dropouts) with early to moderately advanced prion disease using model parameters to compare the power of various designs. Main Outcomes and Measures A total of 2681 assessments were done using a functionally orientated composite end point (Medical Research Council Scale) and associated with clinical investigations (brain magnetic resonance imaging, electroencephalography, and cerebrospinal fluid analysis) and molecular data (prion protein [PrP] gene sequencing, PrPSc type). Results Of the 598 participants, 273 were men. The PrP gene sequence was significantly associated with decline relative to any other demographic or investigation factors. Patients with sCJD and polymorphic codon 129 genotypes MM, VV, and MV lost 10% of their function in 5.3 (95% CI, 4.2-6.9), 13.2 (95% CI, 10.9-16.6), and 27.8 (95% CI, 21.9-37.8) days, respectively (P < .001). Simulations indicate that an adequately powered (80%; 2-sided α = .05) open-label randomized trial using 50% reduction in Medical Research Council Scale decline as the primary outcome could be conducted with only 120 participants assessed every 10 days and only 90 participants assessed daily, providing considerably more power than using survival as the primary outcome. Restricting to VV or MV codon 129 genotypes increased power even further. Alternatively, single-arm intervention studies (half the total sample size) could provide similar power in comparison to the natural history cohort. Conclusions and Relevance Functional end points in neurodegeneration need not require long and very large clinical studies to be adequately powered for efficacy. Patients with sCJD may be an efficient and cost-effective group for testing disease-modifying therapeutics. Stratified medicine and natural history cohort approaches may transform the feasibility of clinical trials in orphan diseases.
Prion diseases are rare neurodegenerative conditions causing highly variable clinical syndromes, which often include prominent neuropsychiatric symptoms. We have recently carried out a clinical study of behavioural and psychiatric symptoms in a large prospective cohort of patients with prion disease in the United Kingdom, allowing us to operationalise specific behavioural/psychiatric phenotypes as traits in human prion disease. Here, we report exploratory genome-wide association analysis on 170 of these patients and 5200 UK controls, looking for single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with three behavioural/psychiatric phenotypes in the context of prion disease. We also specifically examined a selection of candidate SNPs that have shown genome-wide association with psychiatric conditions in previously published studies, and the codon 129 polymorphism of the prion protein gene, which is known to modify various aspects of the phenotype of prion disease. No SNPs reached genome-wide significance, and there was no evidence of altered burden of known psychiatric risk alleles in relevant prion cases. SNPs showing suggestive evidence of association (P<10−5) included several lying near genes previously implicated in association studies of other psychiatric and neurodegenerative diseases. These include ANK3, SORL1 and a region of chromosome 6p containing several genes implicated in schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. We would encourage others to acquire phenotype data in independent cohorts of patients with prion disease as well as other neurodegenerative and neuropsychiatric conditions, to allow meta-analysis that may shed clearer light on the biological basis of these complex disease manifestations, and the diseases themselves.
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