In the absence of entomological information, tools for predicting Anopheles spp. presence can help evaluate the entomological risk of malaria transmission. Here, we illustrate how species distribution models (SDM) could quantify potential dominant vector species presence in malaria elimination settings. We fitted a 250 m resolution ensemble SDM for Anopheles albimanus Wiedemann. The ensemble SDM included predictions based on seven different algorithms, 110 occurrence records and 70 model projections. SDM covariates included nine environmental variables that were selected based on their importance from an original set of 28 layers that included remotely and spatially interpolated locally measured variables for the land surface of Costa Rica. Goodness of fit for the ensemble SDM was very high, with a minimum AUC of 0.79. We used the resulting ensemble SDM to evaluate differences in habitat suitability (HS) between commercial plantations and surrounding landscapes, finding a higher HS in pineapple and oil palm plantations, suggestive of An. albimanus presence, than in surrounding landscapes. The ensemble SDM suggested a low HS for An. albimanus at the presumed epicenter of malaria transmission during 2018–2019 in Costa Rica, yet this vector was likely present at the two main towns also affected by the epidemic. Our results illustrate how ensemble SDMs in malaria elimination settings can provide information that could help to improve vector surveillance and control.

Background: The present study provides a countrywide perspective of the malaria situation in Panamá over a longterm framework, with the purpose of identifying historical malaria resurgence events and their potential causes. Methods: A descriptive-ecological study was conducted by analysing demographic and epidemiological annual malaria time series data in Panamá (1884-2019) using several data sources. Malaria intensity indicators were calculated during the study period. The effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation on malaria transmission were also analysed using a retrospective analysis of malaria cases between 1957 and 2019. Results: Several factors were identified responsible for malaria resurgence in Panamá, mostly related with Malaria Control Programme weakening. During the past 20 years (2000-2019) malaria has progressively increased in prevalence within indigenous settlements, with a predominance of male cases and a high proportion (15% of total cases) in children less than 5 years old. During this period, a significant and increasing proportion of the Plasmodium falciparum cases were imported. Retrospective analysis (1957-2019) evidenced that ENSO had a significant impact on malaria transmission dynamics in Panamá. Conclusions: Data analysis confirmed that although authorities have been successful in focalizing malaria transmission in the country, there are still neglected issues to be solved and important intercultural barriers that need to be addressed in order to achieve elimination of the disease by 2022. This information will be useful for targeting strategies by the National Malaria Elimination Programme.

Central America is a unique geographical region that connects North and South America, enclosed by the Caribbean Sea to the East, and the Pacific Ocean to the West. This region, encompassing Belize, Costa Rica, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Panama, and Nicaragua, is highly vulnerable to the emergence or resurgence of mosquito-borne and tick-borne diseases due to a combination of key ecological and socioeconomic determinants acting together, often in a synergistic fashion. Of particular interest are the effects of land use changes, such as deforestation-driven urbanization and forest degradation, on the incidence and prevalence of these diseases, which are not well understood. In recent years, parts of Central America have experienced social and economic improvements; however, the region still faces major challenges in developing effective strategies and significant investments in public health infrastructure to prevent and control these diseases. In this article, we review the current knowledge and potential impacts of deforestation, urbanization, and other land use changes on mosquito-borne and tick-borne disease transmission in Central America and how these anthropogenic drivers could affect the risk for disease emergence and resurgence in the region. These issues are addressed in the context of other interconnected environmental and social challenges.

Abstract. To determine which species and populations of Anopheles transmit malaria in any given situation, immunological assays for malaria sporozoite antigen can replace traditional microscopical examination of freshly dissected Anopheles. We developed a wicking assay for use with mosquitoes that identifies the presence or absence of specific peptide epitopes of circumsporozoite (CS) protein of Plasmodium falciparum and two strains of Plasmodium vivax (variants 210 and 247). The resulting assay (VecTest TM Malaria) is a rapid, one-step procedure using a`dipstick' test strip capable of detecting and distinguishing between P. falciparum and P. vivax infections in mosquitoes. The objective of the present study was to test the efficacy, sensitivity, stability and field-user acceptability of this wicking dipstick assay. In collaboration with 16 test centres world-wide, we evaluated more than 40 000 units of this assay, comparing it to the standard CS ELISA. The`VecTest TM Malaria' was found to show 92% sensitivity and 98.1% specificity, with 97.8% accuracy overall. In accelerated storage tests, the dipsticks remained stable for >15 weeks in dry conditions up to 45 C and in humid conditions up to 37 C. Evidently, this quick and easy dipstick test performs at an acceptable level of reliability and offers practical advantages for field workers needing to make rapid surveys of malaria vectors.