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[1] We investigate the effect of extended faulting processes and heterogeneous wave propagation on the early warning system capability to predict the peak ground velocity (PGV) from moderate to large earthquakes occurring in the southern Apennines (Italy). Simulated time histories at the early warning network have been used to retrieve early estimates of source parameters and to predict the PGV, following an evolutionary, probabilistic approach. The system performance is measured through the Effective Lead-Time (ELT), i.e., the time interval between the arrival of the first S-wave and the time at which the probability to observe the true PGV value within one standard deviation becomes stationary, and the Probability of Prediction Error (PPE), which provides a measure of PGV prediction error. The regional maps of ELT and PPE show a significant variability around the fault up to large distances, thus indicating that the system's capability to accurately predict the observed peak ground motion strongly depends on distance and azimuth from the fault.

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We applied a joint survey approach integrating time domain electromagnetic soundings and single‐station ambient vibration surveys in the Middle Aterno Valley (MAV), an intermontane basin in central Italy and the locus of the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake. By imaging the buried interface between the infilling deposits and the top of the pre‐Quaternary bedrock, we reveal the 3‐D basin geometry and gain insights into the long‐term basin evolution. We reconstruct a complex subsurface architecture, characterized by three main depocenters separated by thresholds. Basin infill thickness varies from ~200–300 m in the north to more than 450 m to the southeast. Our subsurface model indicates a strong structural control on the architecture of the basin and highlights that the MAV experienced considerable modifications in its configuration over time. The buried shape of the MAV suggests a recent and still ongoing predominant tectonic control by the NW‐SE trending Paganica‐San Demetrio Fault System (PSDFS), which crosscuts older ~ENE and NNE trending extensional faults. Furthermore, we postulate that the present‐day arrangement of the PSDFS is the result of the linkage of two previously isolated fault segments. We provide constraints on the location of the southeastern boundary of the PSDFS, defining an overall ~19 km long fault system characterized by a considerable seismogenetic potential and a maximum expected magnitude larger than M 6.5. This study emphasizes the benefit of combining two easily deployable geophysical methods for reconstructing the 3‐D geometry of a tectonically controlled basin. Our joint approach provided us with a consistent match between these two independent estimations of the basin substratum depth within 15%.

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