After three years of cold conditions, warm water has returned to Ilulissat Icefjord, home to Jakobshavn Isbrae-Greenland's largest outlet glacier. Jakobshavn has slowed and thickened since 2016, when waters near the glacier cooled from 3 °C to 1.5 °C. Fjord temperatures remained cold through at least the end of 2019, but in March 2020, temperatures in the fjord warmed to 2.8 °C. As a result of the warming, we forecast that Jakobshavn Isbrae will accelerate and resume thinning during the 2020 melt season. The fjord's profound in uence on glacier behavior, and the connectivity between fjord conditions and regional ocean climate imply a degree of predictability that we aim to test with this forecast. Given the global importance of sea-level rise, we must advance our ability to forecast such rapidly changing systems, and this work represents an important rst step in glacier forecasting.

The retreat and acceleration of Greenland glaciers since the mid-1990s have been attributed to the enhanced intrusion of warm Atlantic Waters (AW) into fjords, but this assertion has not been quantitatively tested on a Greenland-wide basis or included in models. Here, we investigate how AW influenced retreat at 226 marine-terminating glaciers using ocean modeling, remote sensing, and in situ observations. We identify 74 glaciers in deep fjords with AW controlling 49% of the mass loss that retreated when warming increased undercutting by 48%. Conversely, 27 glaciers calving on shallow ridges and 24 in cold, shallow waters retreated little, contributing 15% of the loss, while 10 glaciers retreated substantially following the collapse of several ice shelves. The retreat mechanisms remain undiagnosed at 87 glaciers without ocean and bathymetry data, which controlled 19% of the loss. Ice sheet projections that exclude ocean-induced undercutting may underestimate mass loss by at least a factor of 2.

High‐resolution, three‐dimensional simulations from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model ocean model are used to calculate the subaqueous melt rate of the calving faces of Umiamako, Rinks, Kangerdlugssup, Store, and Kangilerngata glaciers, west Greenland, from 1992 to 2015. Model forcing is from monthly reconstructions of ocean state and ice sheet runoff. Results are analyzed in combination with observations of bathymetry, bed elevation, ice front retreat, and glacier speed. We calculate that subaqueous melt rates are 2–3 times larger in summer compared to winter and doubled in magnitude since the 1990s due to enhanced subglacial runoff and 1.6 ± 0.3°C warmer ocean temperature. Umiamako and Kangilerngata retreated rapidly in the 2000s when subaqueous melt rates exceeded the calving rates and ice front retreated to deeper bed elevation. In contrast, Store, Kangerdlugssup, and Rinks have remained stable because their subaqueous melt rates are 3–4 times lower than their calving rates, i.e., the glaciers are dominated by calving processes.

Bathymetry (seafloor depth), is a critical parameter providing the geospatial context for a multitude of marine scientific studies. Since 1997, the International Bathymetric Chart of the Arctic Ocean (IBCAO) has been the authoritative source of bathymetry for the Arctic Ocean. IBCAO has merged its efforts with the Nippon Foundation-GEBCO-Seabed 2030 Project, with the goal of mapping all of the oceans by 2030. Here we present the latest version (IBCAO Ver. 4.0), with more than twice the resolution (200 × 200 m versus 500 × 500 m) and with individual depth soundings constraining three times more area of the Arctic Ocean (∼19.8% versus 6.7%), than the previous IBCAO Ver. 3.0 released in 2012. Modern multibeam bathymetry comprises ∼14.3% in Ver. 4.0 compared to ∼5.4% in Ver. 3.0. Thus, the new IBCAO Ver. 4.0 has substantially more seafloor morphological information that offers new insights into a range of submarine features and processes; for example, the improved portrayal of Greenland fjords better serves predictive modelling of the fate of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Background & Summary A broad range of Arctic climate and environmental research, including questions on the declining cryosphere and the geological history of the Arctic Basin, require knowledge of the depth and shape of the seafloor 1-3. Bathymetry provides the geospatial framework for these and other studies 4 and has impact on many processes, including the pathways of ocean currents and, thus, the distribution of heat 5,6 , sea-ice decline 7 , the effect of inflowing warm waters on tidewater glaciers 8 , and the stability of marine-based ice streams and outlet glaciers grounded on the seabed 9-11. Bathymetric data from large parts of the Arctic Ocean are, however, not available or extremely sparse due to difficulties, both logistical and political, in accessing the region 12. The International Bathymetric Chart of the Arctic Ocean (IBCAO) project, was initiated in 1997 in St Petersburg, Russia, to address the need for up-to-date digital portrayals of the Arctic Ocean seafloor 13. Since 1997, three Digital Bathymetric Models (DBMs) have ingested new data sets compiled by the IBCAO project team and have been released for public use 14-16. These DBMs comprised grids with a regular cell size of 2.5 × 2.5 km (Ver. 1.0), 2 × 2 km (Ver. 2.0) and 500 × 500 m (Ver. 3.0) on a Polar Stereographic projection. Depth estimates for grid cells between constraining depth observations were interpolated by the continuous curvature spline in a tension gridding algorithm 17. All depth data available at the time of the compilations were used, including multi-and single-beam bathymetry, and contours and soundings digitized from depth charts, with direct depth observations having the highest priority and digitized contours the lowest 18. Recognizing the importance of complete global bathymetry, the General Bathymetric Chart of the Ocean (GEBCO), a project under the auspices of the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO) and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commissio...