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Objectives We aimed to develop and validate a risk score to predict severe respiratory failure (SRF) among patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). Methods We performed a multicentre cohort study among hospitalized (>24 hours) patients diagnosed with COVID-19 from 22 February to 3 April 2020, at 11 Italian hospitals. Patients were divided into derivation and validation cohorts according to random sorting of hospitals. SRF was assessed from admission to hospital discharge and was defined as: Sp o 2 <93% with 100% Fi o 2 , respiratory rate >30 breaths/min or respiratory distress. Multivariable logistic regression models were built to identify predictors of SRF, β-coefficients were used to develop a risk score. Trial Registration NCT04316949 . Results We analysed 1113 patients (644 derivation, 469 validation cohort). Mean (±SD) age was 65.7 (±15) years, 704 (63.3%) were male. SRF occurred in 189/644 (29%) and 187/469 (40%) patients in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. At multivariate analysis, risk factors for SRF in the derivation cohort assessed at hospitalization were age ≥70 years (OR 2.74; 95% CI 1.66–4.50), obesity (OR 4.62; 95% CI 2.78–7.70), body temperature ≥38°C (OR 1.73; 95% CI 1.30–2.29), respiratory rate ≥22 breaths/min (OR 3.75; 95% CI 2.01–7.01), lymphocytes ≤900 cells/mm 3 (OR 2.69; 95% CI 1.60–4.51), creatinine ≥1 mg/dL (OR 2.38; 95% CI 1.59–3.56), C-reactive protein ≥10 mg/dL (OR 5.91; 95% CI 4.88–7.17) and lactate dehydrogenase ≥350 IU/L (OR 2.39; 95% CI 1.11–5.11). Assigning points to each variable, an individual risk score (PREDI-CO score) was obtained. Area under the receiver-operator curve was 0.89 (0.86–0.92). At a score of >3, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were 71.6% (65%–79%), 89.1% (86%–92%), 74% (67%–80%) and 89% (85%–91%), respectively. PREDI-CO score showed similar prognostic ability in the validation cohort: area under the receiver-operator curve 0.85 (0.81–0.88). At a score of >3, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were 80% (73%–85%), 76% (70%–81%), 69% (60%–74%) and 85% (80%–89%), respectively. Conclusion PREDI-CO score can be useful to allocate resources and prioritize treatments during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The availability of direct-acting antiviral agents (DAA) regimens has expanded the pool of patients eligible for treatment. However, data on the virologic response and tolerability of DAAs in elderly patients are lacking. We evaluated the efficacy and safety of DAAs in patients with advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis in real-life practice with the focus on those aged ≥65 years. Between January and December 2015, all consecutive patients with HCV-related advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis treated with DAA at eleven tertiary referral centres in Emilia Romagna (Italy) were enrolled. Regimen choice was based on viral genotype and stage of disease, according to guidelines. The primary end point was sustained virologic response 12 weeks after the end of treatment (SVR12). Overall, 282 of 556 (50.7%) patients evaluated were elderly, most of them with cirrhosis. Antiviral therapy was stopped prematurely in four (1.4%) patients. Two patients, both with cirrhosis, died during treatment due to worsening of liver/renal function. SVR12 was achieved by 94.7% and was comparable to that obtained in patients aged <65 (P=.074). Similar data were also reported in subgroup of patients aged ≥75 years. All patients with advanced fibrosis achieved virologic response. SVR12 was 80.8% in Child-Pugh-Turcotte (CTP)-B cirrhosis and 95.4% in CTP-A (P=.013). According to genotype, the SVR12 was achieved in 172 of 181 (95%) with genotype 1b cirrhosis and in 44 of 48 (91.7%) with genotype 2 cirrhosis. In conclusions, in a real-world setting, DAAs are safe and effective in elderly patients with HCV-related advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis, but SVR12 is lower with worsening CTP class.

Implementation of an ID team for the early management of SS/SS in the ED improved the adherence to SSC recommendations and patient survival.