Abstract. Natural methane (CH 4 ) emissions from wet ecosystems are an important part of today's global CH 4 budget. Climate affects the exchange of CH 4 between ecosystems and the atmosphere by influencing CH 4 production, oxidation, and transport in the soil. The net CH 4 exchange depends on ecosystem hydrology, soil and vegetation characteristics. Here, the LPJ-WHyMe global dynamical vegetation model is used to simulate global net CH 4 emissions for different ecosystems: northern peatlands (45 • -90 • N), naturally inundated wetlands (60 • S-45 • N), rice agriculture and wet mineral soils. Mineral soils are a potential CH 4 sink, but can also be a source with the direction of the net exchange depending on soil moisture content. The geographical and seasonal distributions are evaluated against multi-dimensional atmospheric inversions for 2003-2005, using two independent four-dimensional variational assimilation systems. The atmospheric inversions are constrained by the atmospheric CH 4 observations of the SCIAMACHY satellite instrument and global surface networks. Compared to LPJ-WHyMe the inversions result in a significant reduction in the emissions from northern peatlands and suggest that LPJ-WHyMe maximum annual emissions peak about one month late. TheCorrespondence to: R. Spahni (spahni@climate.unibe.ch) inversions do not put strong constraints on the division of sources between inundated wetlands and wet mineral soils in the tropics. Based on the inversion results we diagnose model parameters in LPJ-WHyMe and simulate the surface exchange of CH 4 over the period [1990][1991][1992][1993][1994][1995][1996][1997][1998][1999][2000][2001][2002][2003][2004][2005][2006][2007][2008]. Over the whole period we infer an increase of global ecosystem CH 4 emissions of +1.11 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , not considering potential additional changes in wetland extent. The increase in simulated CH 4 emissions is attributed to enhanced soil respiration resulting from the observed rise in land temperature and in atmospheric carbon dioxide that were used as input. The longterm decline of the atmospheric CH 4 growth rate from 1990 to 2006 cannot be fully explained with the simulated ecosystem emissions. However, these emissions show an increasing trend of +3.62 Tg CH 4 yr −1 over 2005-2008 which can partly explain the renewed increase in atmospheric CH 4 concentration during recent years.

Natural methane (CH₄) emissions from wet ecosystems are an important part of today's global CH₄ budget. Climate affects the exchange of CH₄ between ecosystems and the atmosphere by influencing CH₄ production, oxidation, and transport in the soil. The net CH₄ exchange depends on ecosystem hydrology, soil and vegetation characteristics. Here, the LPJ-WHyMe global dynamical vegetation model is used to simulate global net CH₄ emissions for different ecosystems: northern peatlands (45°–90° N), naturally inundated wetlands (60° S–45° N), rice agriculture and wet mineral soils. Mineral soils are a potential CH₄ sink, but can also be a source with the direction of the net exchange depending on soil moisture content. The geographical and seasonal distributions are evaluated against multi-dimensional atmospheric inversions for 2003–2005, using two independent four-dimensional variational assimilation systems. The atmospheric inversions are constrained by the atmospheric CH₄ observations of the SCIAMACHY satellite instrument and global surface networks. Compared to LPJ-WHyMe the inversions result in a significant reduction in the emissions from northern peatlands and suggest that LPJ-WHyMe maximum annual emissions peak about one month late. The inversions do not put strong constraints on the division of sources between inundated wetlands and wet mineral soils in the tropics. Based on the inversion results we adapt model parameters in LPJ-WHyMe and simulate the surface exchange of CH₄ over the period 1990–2008. Over the whole period we infer an increase of global ecosystem CH₄ emissions of +1.11 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹, not considering potential additional changes in wetland extent. The increase in simulated CH₄ emissions is attributed to enhanced soil respiration resulting from the observed rise in land temperature and in atmospheric carbon dioxide that were used as input. The long-term decline of the atmospheric CH₄ growth rate from 1990 to 2006 cannot be fully explained with the simulated ecosystem emissions. However, these emissions show an increasing trend of +3.62 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹ over 2005–2008 which can partly explain the renewed increase in atmospheric CH₄ concentration during recent years

[1] Historical observations of the 13 C/ 12 C ratio of atmospheric CH 4 are used to constrain the present-day methane budget using optimal estimation. Three methane emission scenarios with basis in the recent literature are evaluated against historical 13 CH 4 observations, considering all uncertainties together. We estimate that present-day methane emissions are composed of 64%-76% biogenic, 19%-30% fossil, and 4%-6% pyrogenic sources. It is found that, barring any changes in the isotopic signatures of sources and sink processes, satisfying the 13 C/ 12 C record requires estimates of present-day anthropogenic fuel-related emissions that are on the high end of the assumed uncertainties, even when a significant geological source is included. Extending present-day results to the time of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), emissions from wetlands are implied to be 40%-62% of the present-day value, the higher number being valid only for a scenario with strong (∼30 Tg/a) geological emissions and roughly 20% greater biomass burning emissions at LGM relative to the present-day.Citation: Neef, L., M. van Weele, and P. van Velthoven (2010), Optimal estimation of the present-day global methane budget, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 24, GB4024,