No abstract

Analyzing the displacement time series from continuous GPS (cGPS) with an Independent Component Analysis, we detect a transient deformation signal that correlates both in space and time with a seismic swarm activity (maximum Mw=3.69 ± 0.09) occurred in the hanging wall of the Altotiberina normal fault (Northern Apennines, Italy) in 2013–2014. The geodetic transient lasted ∼6 months and produced a NW‐SE trending extension of ∼5.3 mm, consistent with the regional tectonic regime. The seismicity and the geodetic signal are consistent with slip on two splay faults in the Altotiberina fault (ATF) hanging wall. Comparing the seismic moment associated with the geodetic transient and the seismic events, we observe that seismicity accounts for only a fraction of the measured geodetic deformation. The combined seismic and aseismic slip decreased the Coulomb stress on the locked shallow portion of the ATF, while the transition region to the creeping section has been loaded.

While low‐angle normal faults have been recognized worldwide from geological studies, whether these structures are active or capable of generating big earthquakes is still debated. We provide new constraints on the role and modes of the Altotiberina fault (ATF) in accommodating extension in the Northern Apennines. We model GPS velocities to study block kinematics, faults slip rates and interseismic coupling of the ATF, which is active and accounts, with its antithetic fault, for a large part of the observed chain normal 3 mm/yr tectonic extension. A wide portion of the ATF creeps at the long‐term slip rate (1.7 ± 0.3 mm/yr), but the shallow locked portions are compatible with M > 6.5 earthquakes. We suggest that positive stress accumulation due to ATF creep is most likely released by more favorable oriented splay faults, whose rupture may propagate downdip along low‐angle normal fault surface and reduce the probability of occurrence of a seismic rupture of the shallower locked portion.

We apply a blind source separation algorithm to the ground displacement time series recorded at continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) stations in the European Eastern Alps and Northern Dinarides. As a result, we characterize the temporal and spatial features of several deformation signals. Seasonal displacements are well described by loading effects caused by Earth surface mass redistributions. More interestingly, we highlight a horizontal, nonseasonal, transient deformation signal, with spatially variable amplitudes and directions. The stations affected by this signal reverse the sense of movement with time, implying a sequence of dilatational and compressional deformation that is oriented normal to rock fractures in karst areas. The temporal evolution of this deformation signal is correlated with the history of cumulated precipitations at monthly time scales. This transient horizontal deformation can be explained by pressure changes associated with variable water levels within vertical fractures in the vadose zones of karst systems. The water level changes required to open or close these fractures are consistent with the fluctuations of precipitation and with the dynamics of karst systems.

Abstract. This study presents and discusses horizontal and vertical geodetic velocities for a low strain rate region of the south Alpine thrust front in northeastern Italy obtained by integrating GPS, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and leveling data. The area is characterized by the presence of subparallel, south-verging thrusts whose seismogenic potential is still poorly known. Horizontal GPS velocities show that this sector of the eastern Southern Alps is undergoing ∼1 mm a−1 of NW–SE shortening associated with the Adria–Eurasia plate convergence, but the horizontal GPS velocity gradient across the mountain front provides limited constraints on the geometry and slip rate of the several subparallel thrusts. In terms of vertical velocities, the three geodetic methods provide consistent results showing a positive velocity gradient, of ∼ 1.5 mm a−1, across the mountain front, which can hardly be explained solely by isostatic processes. We developed an interseismic dislocation model whose geometry is constrained by available subsurface geological reconstructions and instrumental seismicity. While a fraction of the measured uplift can be attributed to glacial and erosional isostatic processes, our results suggest that interseismic strain accumulation at the Montello and the Bassano–Valdobbiadene thrusts it significantly contributing to the measured uplift. The seismogenic potential of the Montello thrust turns out to be smaller than that of the Bassano–Valdobbiadene fault, whose estimated parameters (locking depth equals 9.1 km and slip rate equals 2.1 mm a−1) indicate a structure capable of potentially generating a Mw>6.5 earthquake. These results demonstrate the importance of precise vertical ground velocity data for modeling interseismic strain accumulation in slowly deforming regions where seismological and geomorphological evidence of active tectonics is often scarce or not conclusive.