Most eukaryotic organisms are arthropods. Yet, their diversity in rich terrestrial ecosystems is still unknown. Here we produce tangible estimates of the total species richness of arthropods in a tropical rainforest. Using a comprehensive range of structured protocols, we sampled the phylogenetic breadth of arthropod taxa from the soil to the forest canopy in the San Lorenzo forest, Panama. We collected 6144 arthropod species from 0.48 hectare and extrapolated total species richness to larger areas on the basis of competing models. The whole 6000-hectare forest reserve most likely sustains 25,000 arthropod species. Notably, just 1 hectare of rainforest yields >60% of the arthropod biodiversity held in the wider landscape. Models based on plant diversity fitted the accumulated species richness of both herbivore and nonherbivore taxa exceptionally well. This lends credence to global estimates of arthropod biodiversity developed from plant models.M ost eukaryote species are terrestrial arthropods (1), and most terrestrial arthropods occur in tropical rainforests (2). However, considerably greater sampling effort is required in tropical arthropod surveys to yield realistic estimates of global species richness (3-7). A basic hindrance to estimating global biodiversity lies in a lack of empirical data that establish local biodiversity, which can be scaled up to achieve a global estimate.Although many studies reported species richness for selected groups of well-studied insect taxa, no satisfactory estimate of total arthropod species richness exists for a single tropical rainforest location to date.The unstructured collection and small-scale survey of tropical arthropods cannot yield convincing estimates of total species richness at a specific forest (7-9). Most studies either target few arthropod orders or trophic guilds, or use a limited array of sampling methods, or ignore the diverse upper canopy regions of tropical forests (10-15). Moreover, sampling protocols have rarely been structured in such a way that, with increased sampling, incomplete data on local diversity (7) can be extrapolated to estimate total species richness across multiple spatial scales (16). Where such structured estimates are made, it is invariably for insect herbivores on their host plants (5). However, species accumulation rates may differ markedly for nonherbivore guilds, which include more than half of all described arthropod species (1, 17). As the degree of host specificity (effective specialization) of other guilds can be much lower than that of insect herbivores, or may be driven by different factors (18,19), global estimates based on herbivores alone are questionable. Consequently, extensive cross-taxon surveys with structured protocols at reference sites may be the only effective approach toward estimating total arthropod species richness in tropical forests (3).To provide a comprehensive estimate of total arthropod species richness in a tropical rainforest, we established a collaboration involving 102 researchers with expertise encom...

Summary1 Angiosperm trees often dominate forests growing in resource-rich habitats, whereas conifers are generally restricted to less productive habitats. It has been suggested that conifers may be displaced by angiosperms except where competition is less intense, because conifer seedlings are inherently slow growing, and are outpaced by faster-growing angiosperm species. Here we investigate whether competition with ferns and deeply shading trees also contributes to a failure of conifers to regenerate in resource-rich habitats. 2 We examined how changes in soil nutrient availability and drainage affected vegetation along the retrogressive stages of a soil chronosequence in southern New Zealand. Vegetation composition shifted from angiosperm-tree dominance on 'recent' alluvial terraces (< 24 ky), via coniferous-tree dominance on older marine terraces (79-121 ky), to coniferous-shrub dominance on the oldest marine terraces (291 ky). Soil drainage deteriorated along the sequence, and N : P leaves and N : P soil indicate increasing Plimitation. Conifer species appear to be adapted to persistence on infertile and poorly drained soils. 3 The floor of the relatively fertile alluvial forests was deeply shaded ( ∼ 1% light transmission) by dense groves of tree-ferns and ground-ferns, and by large-leaved subcanopy trees. Few seedlings of any type were found on the forest floor, even in tree-fall gaps, and establishment was restricted to rotting logs and tree-fern trunks. Angiosperms were particularly successful at colonizing these raised surfaces. 4 Less shade was cast by the conifer-dominated forests on infertile marine terraces ( ∼ 5% light transmission), which lacked tall ferns. There were many opportunities for conifer establishment, with high seedling densities recorded on the forest floor and on logs. By contrast, angiosperm seedlings were mainly restricted to logs. 5 Our results suggest that several mechanisms act in concert to reduce regeneration opportunities for conifers in productive habitats. In particular, we suggest that tall ferns and deep shade are responsible for a restriction of regeneration opportunities in relatively productive forests in New Zealand, diminishing the opportunities for conifers to escape the competitive effects of fast-growing angiosperms. Thus 'crocodiles' may alter the outcome of the race between 'hares' and 'tortoises'.