Background Tens of millions of children are exposed to Mycobacterium tuberculosis globally every year; however, there are no contemporary estimates of the risk of developing tuberculosis in exposed children. The effectiveness of contact investigations and preventive therapy remains poorly understood.Methods In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we investigated the development of tuberculosis in children closely exposed to a tuberculosis case and followed for incident disease. We restricted our search to cohort studies published between Jan 1, 1998, and April 6, 2018, in MEDLINE, Web of Science, BIOSIS, and Embase electronic databases. Individual-participant data and a pre-specified list of variables were requested from authors of all eligible studies. These included characteristics of the exposed child, the index case, and environmental characteristics. To be eligible for inclusion in the final analysis, a dataset needed to include: (1) individuals below 19 years of age; (2) followup for tuberculosis for a minimum of 6 months; (3) individuals with household or close exposure to an individual with tuberculosis; (4) information on the age and sex of the child; and (5) start and end follow-up dates. Studies assessing incident tuberculosis but without dates or time of follow-up were excluded. Our analysis had two primary aims:(1) estimating the risk of developing tuberculosis by time-period of follow-up, demographics (age, region), and clinical attributes (HIV, tuberculosis infection status, previous tuberculosis); and (2) estimating the effectiveness of preventive therapy and BCG vaccination on the risk of developing tuberculosis. We estimated the odds of prevalent tuberculosis with mixed-effects logistic models and estimated adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for incident tuberculosis with mixedeffects Poisson regression models. The effectiveness of preventive therapy against incident tuberculosis was estimated through propensity score matching. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42018087022).Findings In total, study groups from 46 cohort studies in 34 countries-29 (63%) prospective studies and 17 (37%) retrospective-agreed to share their data and were included in the final analysis. 137 647 tuberculosis-exposed children were evaluated at baseline and 130 512 children were followed for 429 538 person-years, during which 1299 prevalent and 999 incident tuberculosis cases were diagnosed. Children not receiving preventive therapy with a positive result for tuberculosis infection had significantly higher 2-year cumulative tuberculosis incidence than children with a negative result for tuberculosis infection, and this incidence was greatest among children below 5 years of age (19•0% [95% CI 8•4-37•4]). The effectiveness of preventive therapy was 63% (adjusted HR 0•37 [95% CI 0•30-0•47]) among all exposed children, and 91% (adjusted HR 0•09 [0•05-0•15]) among those with a positive result for tuberculosis infection. Among all children <5 years of age who developed tuberculosis, 83% were diagnosed within 9...

Tuberculosis (TB), caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), is an enduring public health problem globally, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Several studies have suggested a role for host genetic susceptibility in increased risk for TB but results across studies have been equivocal. As part of a household contact study of Mtb infection and disease in Kampala, Uganda, we have taken a unique approach to the study of genetic susceptibility to TB, by studying three phenotypes. First, we analyzed culture confirmed TB disease compared to latent Mtb infection (LTBI) or lack of Mtb infection. Second, we analyzed resistance to Mtb infection in the face of continuous exposure, defined by a persistently negative tuberculin skin test (PTST-); this outcome was contrasted to LTBI. Third, we analyzed an intermediate phenotype, tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNFα) expression in response to soluble Mtb ligands enriched with molecules secreted from Mtb (culture filtrate). We conducted a full microsatellite genome scan, using genotypes generated by the Center for Medical Genetics at Marshfield. Multipoint model-free linkage analysis was conducted using an extension of the Haseman-Elston regression model that includes half sibling pairs, and HIV status was included as a covariate in the model. The analysis included 803 individuals from 193 pedigrees, comprising 258 full sibling pairs and 175 half sibling pairs. Suggestive linkage (p<10−3) was observed on chromosomes 2q21-2q24 and 5p13-5q22 for PTST-, and on chromosome 7p22-7p21 for TB; these findings for PTST- are novel and the chromosome 7 region contains the IL6 gene. In addition, we replicated recent linkage findings on chromosome 20q13 for TB (p = 0.002). We also observed linkage at the nominal α = 0.05 threshold to a number of promising candidate genes, SLC11A1 (PTST- p = 0.02), IL-1 complex (TB p = 0.01), IL12BR2 (TNFα p = 0.006), IL12A (TB p = 0.02) and IFNGR2 (TNFα p = 0.002). These results confirm not only that genetic factors influence the interaction between humans and Mtb but more importantly that they differ according to the outcome of that interaction: exposure but no infection, infection without progression to disease, or progression of infection to disease. Many of the genetic factors for each of these stages are part of the innate immune system.

Tuberculosis (TB), caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), remains a major public health problem. Household contact studies identify children and adults along the spectrum from Mtb exposure to disease. In the Kawempe Community Health Study (conducted in Kampala, Uganda), 872 culture-confirmed pulmonary TB cases and their 2,585 contacts were enrolled during 2002-2012 and followed for up to 2 years each. Risk factors identified by time-to-event analysis for secondary TB differed among children, women, and men. Younger age (P = 0.0061), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (P = 0.0002), thinness (P = 0.01), absent bacille Calmette-Guérin vaccination (P = 0.002), and epidemiologic risk score (P < 0.0001) were risks for children. For women, risks were HIV (P < 0.0001), thinness (World Health Organization criteria; P < 0.0001), and epidemiologic risk score (P = 0.003). For men, HIV (P = 0.0007) and low body mass index (P = 0.008) resulted in faster progression to TB. Tuberculin skin testing (TST) identified contacts with Mtb infection and those with persistently negative TST. Risks for faster time to Mtb infection were identified, and included age (P = 0.0007), baseline TST induration (P < 0.0001), and epidemiologic risk score (P < 0.0001) only in children. Those with persistently negative TST comprised 10% of contacts but had no unique epidemiologic characteristics among adults. The burden of Mtb infection and disease is high in TB households, and risk factors for progression from exposure to infection and disease differ among children, women, and men.

Resistance to LTBI, defined by repeatedly negative TST and IGRA, in adults who have had close contact with pulmonary TB patients and live in TB-endemic areas, is a stable outcome of M.tb exposure. Repeated longitudinal measurements with two different immune assays and extended follow-up provide enhanced discriminatory power to identify this resister phenotype and avoid misclassification. Resisters may use immune mechanisms to control aerosolized M.tb that differ from those used by persons who develop "classic" LTBI.