Substantial economic losses have occurred because of unacceptable concentrations of deoxynivalenol (DON) in wheat. Accurate predictions of DON in mature grain at wheat heading are needed to make decisions on whether a control strategy is needed. Our objective was to identify important weather variables, and their timing, for predicting concentrations of DON in mature grain at wheat heading. We measured the concentration of DON in 399 farm fields in southern Ontario, Canada, from 1996 to 2000. DON varied in field samples from undetectable to over 29 μg g-1. Weather variables, such as daily rainfall, daily minimum and maximum air temperatures, and hourly relative humidity, were estimated for each field from nearby weather stations and were normalized to the date of 50% head emergence. Stepwise multiple regression procedures determined the most important weather variables and their timing around heading. DON was responsive to weather in three critical periods around heading. In the first period, 4 to 7 days before heading, DON generally increased with the number of days with >5 mm of rain and decreased with the number of days of <10°C. In the second period, 3 to 6 days after heading, DON increased with the number of days of rain >3 mm and decreased with days exceeding 32°C. In the third period, 7 to 10 days after heading, DON increased with number of days with >3 mm of rain. A relationship between relative humidity and DON was not detected. Overall, 73% of the variation in the concentration of DON was explained by using weather from all three critical periods. Concentrations of DON <2.0 μg g-1 were predicted best; in fact, concentrations of DON of <1.0 μg g-1 were predicted correctly on over 89% of the fields used to train the model.

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Twenty four isolates of Fusarium graminearum, half of which were 3-acetyldeoxynivalenol (3-ADON) and half 15-acetyldeoxynivalenol (15-ADON) chemotypes, were tested for their ability to produce deoxynivalenol and to cause Fusarium head blight (FHB) in spring wheat cultivars. The objectives of this study were to determine (1) whether 3-ADON isolates differ in aggressiveness, as measured by the FHB index, and DON production from 15-ADON isolates under field conditions, and (2) whether the performance of resistant host cultivars was stable across isolates. Field tests of all isolates were conducted with three replicates at each of two locations in Canada and Germany in 2008 with three host genotypes differing in FHB resistance level. The resistant host genotype showed resistance regardless of the chemotype or location. The differences between mean FHB indices of 3-ADON and 15-ADON isolates were not significant for any wheat genotype. In contrast, average DON production by the 3-ADON isolates (10.44 mg kg −1 ) was significantly (P<0.05) higher than for the 15-ADON isolates (6.95 mg kg −1 ) at three of the four locations where moderately resistant lines were tested, and at both locations where susceptible lines were evaluated. These results indicate that 3-ADON isolates could pose a greater risk to food safety. However, as the mean aggressiveness and DON production of 3-ADON and 15-ADON chemotypes was similar on highly resistant lines, breeding and use of highly resistant lines is still the most effective measure of reducing the risks associated with DON in wheat.

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