No abstract

The aim was to explore whether the incidence of tonsillar squamous cell carcinomas (TSCCs) increased in Eastern Denmark, 2000-2010, and whether human papillomavirus (HPV) could explain the increase, and to assess the association of HPV prevalence with gender, age, and origin (i.e., the certainty of tonsillar tumor origin). We applied HPV DNA PCR and p16 immunohistochemistry to all TSCCs registered in the Danish Head and Neck Cancer Group (DAHANCA) and in the Danish Pathology Data Bank (n 5 632). Pathologists reviewed and subdivided the tumors into two groups: specified and nonspecified TSCCs. Approximately 10% of HPV-positive tumors was genotyped by amplicon next-generation sequencing. The overall crude incidence of TSCCs increased significantly (2.7% per year) and was explained by an increasing incidence of HPV-positive TSCCs (4.9% per year). The overall HPV prevalence was 58%, with HPV16 being the predominant HPV type. In multivariate analysis, the HPV prevalence was associated with age (<55 vs. >60 years) (OR, 1.72; 95% CI 1.13-2.63) and origin (nonspecified vs. specified

BackgroundNo study has combined tumour and clinical covariates for survival to construct an individual risk-profile for overall survival (OS), time to progression (TTP), and survival after progression (SAP) in patients with HPV+ and HPV– oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC). Based on the largest-to-date, unselected, population-based cohort of patients diagnosed with OPSCC, we performed a comprehensive analysis of long-term OS, TTP, and SAP and constructed novel nomograms to evaluate patients' prognoses.ResultsAt a median follow-up of 4.0 years (range: 0.8–15.8 yrs.), 690 deaths were recorded. The 5-year OS, TTP, and SAP for the HPV+/p16+ subgroup were 77%, 82%, and 33, vs. 30%, 66%, and 6% for the HPV–/p16– group (P < 0.01). 376 patients failed to maintain disease control with a median TTP of 13 months in the HPV+/p16+ subgroup vs. 8.5 months in the HPV–/p16– subgroup (P < 0.05). HPV combined with p16 status remained one of the most informative covariates in the final Cox regression model for OS, TTP, and SAP.MethodsWe included all patients diagnosed with OPSCC (n = 1,542) between 2000–2014 in Eastern Denmark. Survival rates were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. A multivariate Cox regression model was used to construct predictive, internally validated nomograms.ConclusionThe HPV+/p16+ subgroup had improved OS, TTP, and SAP compared with other combinations of HPV and p16 after adjusting for covariates. Nomograms were constructed for 1-, 5- and 10-year survival probability. Models may aid patients and clinicians in their clinical decision making as well as in counselling, research, and trial design.