The setting and context of the Vinča-Belo Brdo tellThe great tell or settlement mound of Vinča-Belo Brdo sits directly beside the Danube, a little to the south of Belgrade, Serbia (Fig.1). Its eight metres of Late Neolithic deposits span the later sixth to the mid-fifth millennium cal BC, and are underlain by a Starčevo culture occupation of the earlier sixth millennium cal BC (Tasić et al. 2015; in press). The site has given its name to the Vinča culture (or interaction sphere or network; for convenience and familiarity we use the first term here), which extends through the river valleys of the Danube, its tributaries and their catchments, in the northern and central Balkans, from southernmost Hungary and easternmost Croatia through southern Serbia and Kosovo down to northern Macedonia, and from Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina eastwards as far as parts of Transylvania in Romania (Fig. 1). Belo Brdo, near the centre of this distribution, appears to have emerged relatively early in the Vinča culture sequence and was clearly, as the largest known tell of the complex, a place of considerable and enduring significance. This was a time, after the initial emergence of a Neolithic way of life in the region, of the spread, consolidation and diversification of settlement, involving the formation of large settlements and tells; the emergence of both larger communities and distinctive households within such sites; the intensification of subsistence; and changing materiality and the expansion of material networks (Chapman 1981;Kaiser and Voytek 1983;Tasić 2009;Tringham and Krstić 1990;Tripković and Milić 2009;Orton 2010). To understand the initiation, formation, duration and ending of Vinča-Belo Brdo is to grasp some of the major features of the development of Neolithic communities in a major swathe of south-east Europe as a whole.
IntroductionIt is commonly accepted that the Neolithic was introduced to Europe from the Near East, and new genetic and bioarchaeological evidence undoubtedly show that these processes included movements of people (Davison et al. 2007; Haak et al. 2010; Brami, Heyd 2011; Fort 2012; Pinhasi et al. 2012; Bori≤, Price 2013; Gurova, Bonsall 2014; Özdogan 2014; Mathieson et al. 2015; Szécsényi-Nagy et al. 2015; Hofmanová et al. 2016). The directions and rates of spread of the Neolithic in different regions of Europe have been important issues in numerous studies, many of which offered possible models of pop- Early Neolithic population dynamics in the Eastern Balkans and the Great Hungarian Plain 19 ulation expansion. Different models have been suggested for the process, the most frequently considered being: the wave-of-advance model, leap-frog colonisation, and diffusion of cultural novelties (cultural transmission) (Ammerman, Cavalli-Sforza 1971, 1973 Tringham 2000; Whittle et al. 2002; Bar-Yosef 2004; Pinhasi et al. 2005; Davison et al. 2007; Bocquet-Appel et al. 2009; Bori≤, Price 2013). In recent years, the process of neolithisation has been studied as a more complex combination of demic and cultural diffusion (Wirtz, Lemmen 2003; Fort 2012; 2015). ABSTRACT -In this study, we reconstruct population dynamics in the Early Neolithic of the Eastern Balkans and the Great Hungarian Plain using frequency of radiocarbon dates as a population proxy. The method of summed calibrated radiocarbon probability distributions is applied to a set of dates recently published in Bulgaria and Hungary. The aim is to test the hypothesis of the Neolithic demographic transition (NDT) in these regions and to compare the patterns between these two and neighbouring regions. The results show that episodes of population growth occurred in both regions, which is in partial agreement with the predictions of the NDT theory. Population growth is detected, but it is followed by a bust, rather than stabilisation as predicted for the second phase of the NDT. IZVLE∞EK -V ≠lanku posku∏amo rekonstruirati populacijske dinamike v ≠asu zgodnjega neolitika na obmo≠ju vzhodnega Balkana in Velike mad∫arske ni∫ine, in sicer z uporabo pogostnosti radiokarbonskih datumov kot kazalcev poselitve. Metodo vsote verjetnostne razporeditve kalibriranih radiokarbonskih datumov smo uporabili pri analizi datumov, ki so bili nedavno objavljeni v BolgariThe Neolithic way of life brought changes in subsistence and mobility patterns, and a major shift in population structure and dynamics known as the Neolithic Demographic Transition (NDT). According to Jean-Pierre Bocquet-Appel (2002; 2008; 2011a; 2011b; 2013; Bocquet-Appel, Bar-Yosef 2008a), the NDT was a two-stage process -the first stage being characterised by exponential population growth caused by increased fertility, followed by a second stage marked by increased mortality and decelerating growth. It is assumed that the increase in fertility was caused by changes in lifestyle which accompanied the Neolithic -die...
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