Microbiome dynamics are both crucial indicators and drivers of human health, agricultural output, and industrial bio-applications. However, predicting microbiome dynamics is notoriously difficult because communities often show abrupt structural changes, such as dysbiosis in human microbiomes. We here integrate theoretical and empirical bases for anticipating drastic shifts of microbial communities. We monitored 48 experimental microbiomes for 110 days and observed that various community-level events, including collapse and gradual compositional changes, occurred according to a defined set of environmental conditions. We then confirmed that the abrupt community changes observed through the time-series could be described as shifts between alternative stable states or dynamics around complex attractors. Furthermore, collapses of microbiome structure were successfully anticipated by means of the diagnostic threshold defined with the energy landscape analysis of statistical physics or that of a stability index of nonlinear mechanics. These results indicate that abrupt microbiome events in complex microbial communities can be forecasted by extending classic ecological concepts to the scale of species-rich microbial systems.
Natural environments require organisms to possess robust mechanisms allowing responses to seasonal trends. In Arabidopsis halleri, the flowering regulator AhgFLC shows upregulation and downregulation phases along with long-term past temperature, but the underlying machinery remains elusive. Here, we investigate the seasonal dynamics of histone modifications, H3K27me3 and H3K4me3, at AhgFLC in a natural population. Our advanced modelling and transplant experiments reveal that H3K27me3-mediated chromatin regulation at AhgFLC provides two essential properties. One is the ability to respond to the long-term temperature trends via bidirectional interactions between H3K27me3 and H3K4me3; the other is the ratchet-like character of the AhgFLC system, i.e. reversible in the entire perennial life cycle but irreversible during the upregulation phase. Furthermore, we show that the longterm temperature trends are locally indexed at AhgFLC in the form of histone modifications. Our study provides a more comprehensive understanding of H3K27me3 function at AhgFLC in a complex natural environment.
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