Therapeutic Level IV. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.
Background Surgery is the main modality of cure for solid cancers and was prioritised to continue during COVID-19 outbreaks. This study aimed to identify immediate areas for system strengthening by comparing the delivery of elective cancer surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic in periods of lockdown versus light restriction. Methods This international, prospective, cohort study enrolled 20 006 adult (≥18 years) patients from 466 hospitals in 61 countries with 15 cancer types, who had a decision for curative surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic and were followed up until the point of surgery or cessation of follow-up (Aug 31, 2020). Average national Oxford COVID-19 Stringency Index scores were calculated to define the government response to COVID-19 for each patient for the period they awaited surgery, and classified into light restrictions (index <20), moderate lockdowns (20–60), and full lockdowns (>60). The primary outcome was the non-operation rate (defined as the proportion of patients who did not undergo planned surgery). Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to explore the associations between lockdowns and non-operation. Intervals from diagnosis to surgery were compared across COVID-19 government response index groups. This study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT04384926 . Findings Of eligible patients awaiting surgery, 2003 (10·0%) of 20 006 did not receive surgery after a median follow-up of 23 weeks (IQR 16–30), all of whom had a COVID-19-related reason given for non-operation. Light restrictions were associated with a 0·6% non-operation rate (26 of 4521), moderate lockdowns with a 5·5% rate (201 of 3646; adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0·81, 95% CI 0·77–0·84; p<0·0001), and full lockdowns with a 15·0% rate (1775 of 11 827; HR 0·51, 0·50–0·53; p<0·0001). In sensitivity analyses, including adjustment for SARS-CoV-2 case notification rates, moderate lockdowns (HR 0·84, 95% CI 0·80–0·88; p<0·001), and full lockdowns (0·57, 0·54–0·60; p<0·001), remained independently associated with non-operation. Surgery beyond 12 weeks from diagnosis in patients without neoadjuvant therapy increased during lockdowns (374 [9·1%] of 4521 in light restrictions, 317 [10·4%] of 3646 in moderate lockdowns, 2001 [23·8%] of 11 827 in full lockdowns), although there were no differences in resectability rates observed with longer delays. Interpretation Cancer surgery systems worldwide were fragile to lockdowns, with one in seven patients who were in regions with full lockdowns not undergoing planned surgery and experiencing longer preoperative delays. Although short-term oncological outcomes were not compromised in those selected for surgery, delays and non-operations might lead to long-term reductions in survival. During current and future periods of societal restriction, the resilience of elective surgery systems requires strengthening, which might include...
Purpose Thirty-day mortality of patients with hip fracture is well researched and predictive; validated scoring tools have been developed (Nottingham Hip Fracture Score, NHFS). COVID-19 has significantly greater mortality in the elderly and comorbid patients which includes hip fracture patients. Non-operative treatment is not appropriate due to significantly higher mortality, and therefore, these patients are often exposed to COVID-19 in the peri-operative period. What is unclear is the effect of concomitant COVID-19 infection in these patients. Methods A multicentre prospective study across ten sites in the United Kingdom (responsible for 7% of hip fracture patients per annum in the UK). Demographic and background information were collected by independent chart review. Data on surgical factors included American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score, time to theatre, Nottingham Hip fracture score (NHFS) and classification of fracture were also collected between 1st March 2020 and 30th April 2020 with a matched cohort from the same period in 2019. Results Actual and expected 30-day mortality was found to be significantly higher than expected for 2020 COVID-19 positive patients (RR 3.00 95% CI 1.57-5.75, p < 0.001), with 30 observed deaths compared against the 10 expected from NHFS risk stratification. Conclusion COVID-19 infection appears to be an independent risk factor for increased mortality in hip fracture patients. Whilst non-operative management of these fractures is not suggested due to the documented increased risks and mortality, this study provides evidence to the emerging literature of the severity of COVID-19 infection in surgical patients and the potential impact of COVID-19 on elective surgical patients in the peri-operative period.
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