We consider cosmological models of Bianchi type. In particular, we are interested in the alpha-limit dynamics near the Kasner circle of equilibria for Bianchi classes VIII and IX. They correspond to cosmological models close to the big-bang singularity. We prove the existence of a codimension-one family of solutions that limit, for t to negative infinity, onto a heteroclinic 3-cycle to the Kasner circle of equilibria. The theory extends to arbitrary heteroclinic chains that are uniformly bounded away from the three critical Taub points on the Kasner circle, in particular to all closed heteroclinic cycles of the Kasner map.Comment: Minor corrections and clarifications throughout the text, according to referee's suggestion

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In dynamical systems, one may ask how long it takes for a trajectory to reach the attractor, i.e. how long it spends in the transient phase. Although for a single trajectory the mathematically precise answer may be infinity, it still makes sense to compare different trajectories and quantify which of them approaches the attractor earlier. In this article, we categorize several problems of quantifying such transient times. To treat them, we propose two metrics, area under distance curve and regularized reaching time, that capture two complementary aspects of transient dynamics. The first, area under distance curve, is the distance of the trajectory to the attractor integrated over time. It measures which trajectories are 'reluctant', i.e. stay distant from the attractor for long, or 'eager' to approach it right away. Regularized reaching time, on the other hand, quantifies the additional time (positive or negative) that a trajectory starting at a chosen initial condition needs to approach the attractor as compared to some reference trajectory. A positive or negative value means that it approaches the attractor by this much 'earlier' or 'later' than the reference, respectively. We demonstrated their substantial potential for application with multiple paradigmatic examples uncovering new features.

Methods have previously been developed for the approximation of Lyapunov functions using radial basis functions. However these methods assume that the evolution equations are known. We consider the problem of approximating a given Lyapunov function using radial basis functions where the evolution equations are not known, but we instead have sampled data which is contaminated with noise. We propose an algorithm in which we first approximate the underlying vector field, and use this approximation to then approximate the Lyapunov function. Our approach combines elements of machine learning/statistical learning theory with the existing theory of Lyapunov function approximation. Error estimates are provided for our algorithm.

We study the stability of deterministic systems given sequences of large, jump-like perturbations. Our main result is to dervie a lower bound for the probability of the system to remain in the basin, given that perturbations are rare enough. This bound is efficient to evaluate numerically.To quantify rare enough, we define the notion of the independence time of such a system. This is the time after which a perturbed state has probably returned close to the attractor, meaning that subsequent perturbations can be considered separately. The effect of jump-like perturbations that occur at least the independence time apart is thus well described by a fixed probability to exit the basin at each jump, allowing us to obtain the bound.To determine the independence time, we introduce the concept of finite-time basin stability, which corresponds to the probability that a perturbed trajectory returns to an attractor within a given time. The independence time can then be determined as the time scale at which the finite-time basin stability reaches its asymptotic value. Besides that, finite-time basin stability is a novel probabilistic stability measure on its own, with potential broad applications in complex systems.