Summary There is a current imperative to unravel the hierarchy of molecular pathways that drive the transition of early to established disease in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Herein, we report a comprehensive RNA sequencing analysis of the molecular pathways that drive early RA progression in the disease tissue (synovium), comparing matched peripheral blood RNA-seq in a large cohort of early treatment-naive patients, namely, the Pathobiology of Early Arthritis Cohort (PEAC). We developed a data exploration website ( https://peac.hpc.qmul.ac.uk/ ) to dissect gene signatures across synovial and blood compartments, integrated with deep phenotypic profiling. We identified transcriptional subgroups in synovium linked to three distinct pathotypes: fibroblastic pauci-immune pathotype, macrophage-rich diffuse-myeloid pathotype, and a lympho-myeloid pathotype characterized by infiltration of lymphocytes and myeloid cells. This is suggestive of divergent pathogenic pathways or activation disease states. Pro-myeloid inflammatory synovial gene signatures correlated with clinical response to initial drug therapy, whereas plasma cell genes identified a poor prognosis subgroup with progressive structural damage.

Graphical Abstract Highlights d Lactate induces the expression of SLC5A12 on human CD4 + T cells in the inflamed tissue d Lactate promotes CD4 + T cell IL17 production via PKM2/ STAT3 signaling and FA synthesis d Lactate inhibits CD4 + T cell motility via increased FA synthesis and reduced glycolysis d SLC5A12 blockade ameliorates the disease severity in a murine model of arthritis

Genome-wide data is used to stratify patients into classes for precision medicine using clustering algorithms. A common problem in this area is selection of the number of clusters (K). The Monti consensus clustering algorithm is a widely used method which uses stability selection to estimate K. However, the method has bias towards higher values of K and yields high numbers of false positives. As a solution, we developed Monte Carlo reference-based consensus clustering (M3C), which is based on this algorithm. M3C simulates null distributions of stability scores for a range of K values thus enabling a comparison with real data to remove bias and statistically test for the presence of structure. M3C corrects the inherent bias of consensus clustering as demonstrated on simulated and real expression data from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). For testing M3C, we developed clusterlab, a new method for simulating multivariate Gaussian clusters.