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There may be little benefit in providing specialist genetics services to all women with a family history of breast cancer. Further investigation of factors that may mediate the impact of genetic assessment is in progress and may reveal subgroups of women who would benefit from specialist genetics services.

Objectives:The aim of this study was to estimate the effect of service screening, as provided by the NHS breast screening programme, on breast cancer mortality in Wales. Furthermore, we wished to ascertain whether a reduction in breast cancer mortality consistent with that observed in the randomised screening trials was being achieved. Setting:The NHS Breast Screening Programme in Wales, managed by Breast Test Wales, with headquarters in Cardiff. Methods:A case-control study design with 1:2 matching. The cases were deaths from breast cancer in women aged 50-75 years at diagnosis who were diagnosed after the instigation of screening in 1991 and who died after 1998. The controls were women who had not died of breast cancer or any other condition during the study period. One was from the same GP practice and the other from a different GP practice within the same district, matched by year of birth.Results: Based on 419 cases, the odds ratio for risk of death from breast cancer for women who have attended at least one routine screen compared to those never screened was 0.62 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.47-0.82, p=0.001). After excluding cases diagnosed prior to 1995 and adjusting for self-selection bias, the estimated mortality reduction was 25% (odds ratio=0.75, 95% CI 0.49-1.14, p=0.09). Conclusion:The Breast Test Wales screening programme is achieving a reduction in breast cancer mortality of 25% in women attending for screening, which is consistent with the results of the randomized controlled trials of mammographic screening.

INTRODUCTIONThe Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) is an established prognostication tool in the management of breast cancers (BCs). Latest ten-year survival data have demonstrated an improved outlook for each NPI category and the latest UK five-and ten-year survival from BC has been reported to be 85% and 77%, respectively. We compared survival of each NPI category for BCs diagnosed within the national breast screening service in Wales (Breast Test Wales (BTW)) to the latest data, and reviewed its validity in unselected cases within a screened population. METHODS All women screened between 1998 and 2001 within BTW were included. The NPI score for each cancer was calculated using the size, nodal status, and grade of the primary tumour. Survival data (all-cause) were calculated after ten years of follow-up. RESULTS In the three-year screening period, 199,082 women were screened. A total of 1,712 cancers were diagnosed, and 1,546 had data available for calculating the NPI. Overall five-year and ten-year survival was 94% and 82%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Overall five-year and ten-year survival (all-cause) has improved even when compared with UK data for BC-specific survival. We found that the NPI remains valid for BC treatment, and that our data provide a reference for updating the allcause survival of women diagnosed with BCs within a screened population.