Primary immune responses generate short-term effectors and long-term protective memory cells. The delineation of the genealogy linking naive, effector, and memory cells has been complicated by the lack of phenotypes discriminating effector from memory differentiation stages. Using transcriptomics and phenotypic analyses, we identify Bcl2 and Mki67 as a marker combination that enables the tracking of nascent memory cells within the effector phase. We then use a formal approach based on mathematical models describing the dynamics of population size evolution to test potential progeny links and demonstrate that most cells follow a linear naive→early effector→late effector→memory pathway. Moreover, our mathematical model allows long-term prediction of memory cell numbers from a few early experimental measurements. Our work thus provides a phenotypic means to identify effector and memory cells, as well as a mathematical framework to investigate their genealogy and to predict the outcome of immunization regimens in terms of memory cell numbers generated.

CD8 T-cells are critical in controlling infection by intracellular pathogens. Upon encountering antigen presenting cells, T-cell receptor activation promotes the differentiation of naïve CD8 T-cells into strongly proliferating activated and effector stages. We propose a 2D-multiscale computational model to study the maturation of CD8 T-cells in a lymph node controlled by their molecular profile. A novel molecular pathway is presented and converted into an ordinary differential equation model, coupled with a cellular Potts model to describe cell-cell interactions. Key molecular players such as activated IL2 receptor and Tbet levels Computation 2014, 2 160 control the differentiation from naïve into activated and effector stages, respectively, while caspases and Fas-Fas ligand interactions control cell apoptosis. Coupling this molecular model to the cellular scale successfully reproduces qualitatively the evolution of total CD8 T-cell counts observed in mice lymph node, between Day 3 and 5.5 post-infection. Furthermore, this model allows us to make testable predictions of the evolution of the different CD8 T-cell stages.