26 27Uncertainty analysis in LCA studies has been subject to major progress over the last years. In the context of waste 28 management, various methods have been implemented but a systematic method for uncertainty analysis of waste-29 LCA studies is lacking. The objective of this paper is (1) to present the sources of uncertainty specifically inherent to 30 waste-LCA studies, (2) to select and apply several methods for uncertainty analysis and (3) to develop a general 31 framework for quantitative uncertainty assessment of LCA of waste management systems. The suggested method is a 32 sequence of four steps combining the selected methods: (Step 1) a sensitivity analysis evaluating the sensitivities of 33 the results with respect to the input uncertainties, (Step 2) an uncertainty propagation providing appropriate tools for 34 representing uncertainties and calculating the overall uncertainty of the model results, (Step 3) an uncertainty 35 contribution analysis quantifying the contribution of each parameter uncertainty to the final uncertainty and (Step 4) 36 as a new approach, a combined sensitivity analysis providing a visualization of the shift in the ranking of different 37 options due to variations of selected key parameters. This tiered approach optimizes the resources available to LCA 38 practitioners by only propagating the most influential uncertainties. Waste management has during the last decade been subject to a range of life cycle assessment (LCA; described in 48 ISO, 2006) studies e.g. Damgaard et al. (2011, Lazarevic et al. (2010) and Pires et al. 49 (2011). The purposes of these studies have been to help quantifying, for example, where in the waste management 50 system the environmental loads and savings are taking place, which technologies are preferable under specific 51 conditions, or the balance between material and energy recovery. LCA-models specifically focusing on waste 52 management systems are available; see Gentil et al. (2010) for a review of the models. 53As for any LCA study, results are subject to uncertainty due to the combined effects of data variability, 54 erroneous measurements, wrong estimations, unrepresentative or missing data and modelling assumptions. 55Uncertainty is of two different natures: while epistemic uncertainty relates to an incomplete state of knowledge 56 (Hoffman and Hammonds, 1994), stochastic uncertainty originates from the inherent variability of the natural world. 57Such uncertainty can be spatial (e.g. when the farming practice of land receiving compost varies spatially) or 58 temporal (e.g. when the performance of a process varies with time). These two different natures of the uncertainty are 59 usually treated together and referred to by the term "uncertainty". 60 They found that stochastic modelling was the most frequently-used method to propagate uncertainties in LCA. This 75 method propagates probability distributions using random sampling like the Monte Carlo analysis. However, they 76 noted that many of the studies using such modelling...
The Planetary Boundaries concept has emerged as a framework for articulating environmental limits, gaining traction as a basis for considering sustainability in business settings, government policy and international guidelines. There is emerging interest in using the Planetary Boundaries concept as part of life cycle assessment (LCA) for gauging absolute environmental sustainability. We tested the applicability of a novel Planetary Boundaries-based life cycle impact assessment methodology on a hypothetical laundry washing case study at the EU level. We express the impacts corresponding to the control variables of the individual Planetary Boundaries together with a measure of their respective uncertainties. We tested four sharing principles for assigning a share of the safe operating space (SoSOS) to laundry washing and assessed if the impacts were within the assigned SoSOS. The choice of sharing principle had the greatest influence on the outcome. We therefore highlight the need for more research on the development and choice of sharing principles. Although further work is required to operationalize Planetary Boundaries in LCA, this study shows the potential to relate impacts of human activities to environmental boundaries using LCA, offering company and policy decision-makers information needed to promote environmental sustainability.
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