Stratification of women according to their risk of breast cancer based on polygenic risk scores (PRSs) could improve screening and prevention strategies. Our aim was to develop PRSs, optimized for prediction of estrogen receptor (ER)-specific disease, from the largest available genome-wide association dataset and to empirically validate the PRSs in prospective studies. The development dataset comprised 94,075 case subjects and 75,017 control subjects of European ancestry from 69 studies, divided into training and validation sets. Samples were genotyped using genome-wide arrays, and single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were selected by stepwise regression or lasso penalized regression. The best performing PRSs were validated in an independent test set comprising 11,428 case subjects and 18,323 control subjects from 10 prospective studies and 190,040 women from UK Biobank (3,215 incident breast cancers). For the best PRSs (313 SNPs), the odds ratio for overall disease per 1 standard deviation in ten prospective studies was 1.61 (95%CI: 1.57–1.65) with area under receiver-operator curve (AUC) = 0.630 (95%CI: 0.628–0.651). The lifetime risk of overall breast cancer in the top centile of the PRSs was 32.6%. Compared with women in the middle quintile, those in the highest 1% of risk had 4.37- and 2.78-fold risks, and those in the lowest 1% of risk had 0.16- and 0.27-fold risks, of developing ER-positive and ER-negative disease, respectively. Goodness-of-fit tests indicated that this PRS was well calibrated and predicts disease risk accurately in the tails of the distribution. This PRS is a powerful and reliable predictor of breast cancer risk that may improve breast cancer prevention programs.
Most common breast cancer susceptibility variants have been identified through genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of predominantly estrogen receptor (ER)-positive disease1. We conducted a GWAS using 21,468 ER-negative cases and 100,594 controls combined with 18,908 BRCA1 mutation carriers (9,414 with breast cancer), all of European origin. We identified independent associations at P < 5 × 10−8 with ten variants at nine new loci. At P < 0.05, we replicated associations with 10 of 11 variants previously reported in ER-negative disease or BRCA1 mutation carrier GWAS and observed consistent associations with ER-negative disease for 105 susceptibility variants identified by other studies. These 125 variants explain approximately 14% of the familial risk of this breast cancer subtype. There was high genetic correlation (0.72) between risk of ER-negative breast cancer and breast cancer risk for BRCA1 mutation carriers. These findings may lead to improved risk prediction and inform further fine-mapping and functional work to better understand the biological basis of ER-negative breast cancer.
The clinical use of circulating tumor cells (CTCs) enumeration for staging of metastatic breast The clinical use of circulating tumor cells (CTCs) enumeration for staging of metastatic breast cancer (MBC): International expert consensus paper.
PURPOSE About one third of patients with hormone receptor–positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2–negative breast cancer who have residual invasive disease after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) will relapse. Thus, additional therapy is needed. Palbociclib is a cyclin-dependent kinase 4 and 6 inhibitor demonstrating efficacy in the metastatic setting. PATIENTS AND METHODS PENELOPE-B ( NCT01864746 ) is a double-blind, placebo‐controlled, phase III study in women with hormone receptor–positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2–negative primary breast cancer without a pathological complete response after taxane‐containing NACT and at high risk of relapse (clinical pathological staging-estrogen receptor grading score ≥ 3 or 2 and ypN+). Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive 13 cycles of palbociclib 125 mg once daily or placebo on days 1-21 in a 28-day cycle in addition to endocrine therapy (ET). Primary end point is invasive disease-free survival (iDFS). Final analysis was planned after 290 iDFS events with a two-sided efficacy boundary P < .0463 because of two interim analyses. RESULTS One thousand two hundred fifty patients were randomly assigned. The median age was 49.0 years (range, 19-79), and the majority were ypN+ with Ki-67 ≤ 15%; 59.4% of patients had a clinical pathological staging-estrogen receptor grading score ≥ 3. 50.1% received aromatase inhibitor, and 33% of premenopausal women received a luteinizing hormone releasing hormone analog in addition to either tamoxifen or an aromatase inhibitor. After a median follow-up of 42.8 months (92% complete), 308 events were confirmed. Palbociclib did not improve iDFS versus placebo added to ET-stratified hazard ratio, 0.93 (95% repeated CI, 0.74 to 1.17) and two-sided weighted log-rank test (Cui, Hung, and Wang) P = .525. There was no difference among the subgroups. Most common related serious adverse events were infections and vascular disorders in 113 (9.1%) patients with no difference between the treatment arms. Eight fatal serious adverse events (two palbociclib and six placebo) were reported. CONCLUSION Palbociclib for 1 year in addition to ET did not improve iDFS in women with residual invasive disease after NACT.
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