Plant‐soil feedback (PSF) theory provides a powerful framework for understanding plant dynamics by integrating growth assays into predictions of whether soil communities stabilise plant–plant interactions. However, we lack a comprehensive view of the likelihood of feedback‐driven coexistence, partly because of a failure to analyse pairwise PSF, the metric directly linked to plant species coexistence. Here, we determine the relative importance of plant evolutionary history, traits, and environmental factors for coexistence through PSF using a meta‐analysis of 1038 pairwise PSF measures. Consistent with eco‐evolutionary predictions, feedback is more likely to mediate coexistence for pairs of plant species (1) associating with similar guilds of mycorrhizal fungi, (2) of increasing phylogenetic distance, and (3) interacting with native microbes. We also found evidence for a primary role of pathogens in feedback‐mediated coexistence. By combining results over several independent studies, our results confirm that PSF may play a key role in plant species coexistence, species invasion, and the phylogenetic diversification of plant communities.

Summary1. Ecological restoration is a global priority that holds great potential for benefiting natural ecosystems, but restoration outcomes are notoriously unpredictable. Resolving this unpredictability represents a major, but critical challenge to the science of restoration ecology. 2. In an effort to move restoration ecology toward a more predictive science, we consider the key issue of variability. Typically, restoration outcomes vary relative to goals (i.e. reference or desired future conditions) and with respect to the outcomes of other restoration efforts. The field of restoration ecology has largely considered only this first type of variation, often focusing on an oversimplified success vs. failure dichotomy. The causes of variation, particularly among restoration efforts, remain poorly understood for most systems. 3. Variation associated with restoration outcomes is a consequence of how, where and when restoration is conducted; variation is also influenced by how the outcome of restoration is measured. We propose that variation should decrease with the number of factors constraining restoration and increase with the specificity of the goal. When factors (e.g. harsh environmental conditions, limited species reintroductions) preclude most species, little variation will exist among restorations, particularly when goals are associated with metrics such as physical structure, where species may be broadly interchangeable. Conversely, when few constraints to species membership exist, substantial variation may result and this will be most pronounced when restoration is assessed by metrics such as taxonomic composition. 4. Synthesis and applications. The variability we observe during restoration results from both restoration context (how, where and when restoration is conducted) and how we evaluate restoration outcomes. To advance the predictive capacity of restoration, we outline a research agenda that considers metrics of restoration outcomes, the drivers of variation among existing restoration efforts, experiments to quantify and understand variation in restoration outcomes, and the development of models to organise, interpret and forecast restoration outcomes.

Plant-soil feedbacks can contribute to the coexistence of plant species and may predict the abundance of plant species within communities. Here, we test if plant-soil feedbacks act as drivers of secondary succession. We found that the strength of feedback experienced by a plant species was positively correlated with that species' successional stage, indicating that plant-soil feedbacks can contribute to shifts in plant species abundance during succession. We did not observe a significant relationship between strength of feedback and plant species abundance at our study sites, but the positive relationship of feedback and successional stage would generate positive relationships between feedback and the abundance of plant species in communities at equilibrium. This result is supported by spatially explicit simulation models that demonstrate the potential for plant-soil feedbacks to determine changes in species abundance over time and the increasing strength of the relationship between feedback and plant species abundance during succession.

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