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BackgroundMalaria persists in some high-transmission areas despite extensive control efforts. Progress toward elimination may require effective targeting of specific human populations that act as key transmission reservoirs.MethodsParameterized using molecular-based Plasmodium falciparum infection data from cross-sectional community studies in southern Malawi, a simulation model was developed to predict the proportions of human-to-mosquito transmission arising from (a) children under 5 years old (U5s), (b) school-age children (SAC, 5–15 years), (c) young adults (16–30 years), and (d) adults > 30 years. The model incorporates mosquito biting heterogeneity and differential infectivity (i.e. probability that a blood-fed mosquito develops oocysts) by age and gametocyte density.ResultsThe model predicted that SAC were responsible for more than 60% of new mosquito infections in both dry and rainy seasons, even though they comprise only 30% of this southern Malawi population. Young adults were the second largest contributors, while U5s and adults over 30 were each responsible for < 10% of transmission. While the specific predicted values are sensitive to the relative infectiousness of SAC, this group remained the most important contributor to mosquito infections under all realistic estimates.ConclusionsThese results suggest that U5 children play a small role compared to SAC in maintaining P. falciparum transmission in southern Malawi. Models that assume biting homogeneity overestimate the importance of U5s. To reduce transmission, interventions will need to reach more SAC and young adults. This publicly available model can be used by others to estimate age-specific transmission contributions in epidemiologically similar sites with local parameter estimates of P. falciparum prevalence and bed net use.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s12936-018-2295-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background There are few data on the full spectrum of disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection across the lifespan from community-based or nonclinical settings. Methods We followed 2338 people in Managua, Nicaragua, aged &lt;94 years from March 2020 through March 2021. SARS-CoV-2 infection was identified through real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) or through enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Disease presentation was assessed at the time of infection or retrospectively by survey at the time of blood collection. Results There was a large epidemic that peaked between March and August 2020. In total, 129 RT-PCR–positive infections were detected, for an overall incidence rate of 5.3 infections per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.4–6.3). Seroprevalence was 56.7% (95% CI, 53.5%–60.1%) and was consistent from age 11 through adulthood but was lower in children aged ≤10 years. Overall, 31.0% of the infections were symptomatic, with 54.7% mild, 41.6% moderate, and 3.7% severe. There were 2 deaths that were likely due to SARS-CoV-2 infection, yielding an infection fatality rate of 0.2%. Antibody titers exhibited a J-shaped curve with respect to age, with the lowest titers observed among older children and young adults and the highest among older adults. When compared to SARS-CoV-2–seronegative individuals, SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity at the midyear sample was associated with 93.6% protection from symptomatic reinfection (95% CI, 51.1%–99.2%). Conclusions This population exhibited a very high SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity with lower-than-expected severity, and immunity from natural infection was protective against symptomatic reinfection.

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BackgroundAn immune correlate of protection from SARS-CoV-2 infection is urgently needed.MethodsWe used an ongoing household cohort with an embedded transmission study that closely monitors participants regardless of symptom status. Real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) were used to measure infections and seropositivity. Sequencing was performed to determine circulating strains of SARS-CoV-2. We investigated the protection associated with seropositivity resulting from prior infection, the anti-spike antibody titers needed for protection, and we compared the severity of first and second infections.ResultsIn March 2021, 62.3% of the cohort was seropositive. After March 2021, gamma and delta variants predominated. Seropositivity was associated with 69.2% protection from any infection (95% CI: 60.7%-75.9%), with higher protection against moderate or severe infection (79.4%, 95% CI: 64.9%-87.9%). Anti-spike titers of 327 and 2,551 were associated with 50% and 80% protection from any infection; titers of 284 and 656 were sufficient for protection against moderate or severe disease. Second infections were less severe than first infections (Relative Risk (RR) of moderated or severe disease: 0.6, 95% CI: 0.38-0.98; RR of subclinical disease:1.9, 95% CI: 1.33-2.73).ConclusionsPrior infection-induced immunity is protective against infection when predominantly gamma and delta SARS-CoV-2 circulated. The protective antibody titers presented may be useful for vaccine policy and control measures. While second infections were somewhat less severe, they were not as mild as ideal. A strategy involving vaccination will be needed to ease the burden of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.