Managed forests serve as a store of carbon (C) and a renewable source of energy and materials. By using forest products as substitutes for fossil fuels or non-renewable materials, emissions from fossil C sources can be displaced. The efficiency of emissions displacement depends on the product, its lifecycle and the fossil-fuel based reference system that is substituted. Forest management practices have an impact on C stocks in biomass and on the annual supply of products and their mix. There are trade-offs between sequestering C stocks in forests and the climatic benefits obtained by sustainable forest harvesting and using wood products to displace fossil C emissions. This article presents an integrated, steady-state analysis comparing various equilibrium states of managed forests and wood product pools that represent sustainable longterm forestry and wood-use strategies. Two climatic indicators are used: the combined C stock in forests and wood products and the fossil C emissions displaced annually by harvested wood products. The study indicates that long-term strategies could be available that are better according to both indicators than forestry practices based on the existing silvicultural guidelines in Finland. These strategies would involve increasing the basal area and prolonging rotations to produce more sawlogs. Further, the climate benefits appear to be highest in case the sawlog supply is directed to production of long-lived materials substituting for fossil-emission and energy intensive materials and recycled after their useful life to bioenergy.

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wood, bioenergy, substitution, greenhouse gas emission, policy,

Using wood as a building material affects the carbon balance through several mechanisms. This paper describes a modelling approach that integrates a wood product substitution model, a global partial equilibrium model, a regional forest model and a stand-level model. Three different scenarios were compared with a businessas-usual scenario over a 23-year period (2008-2030). Two scenarios assumed an additional one million apartment flats per year will be built of wood instead of non-wood materials by 2030. These scenarios had little effect on markets and forest management and reduced annual carbon emissions by 0.2-0.5% of the total 1990 European GHG emissions. However, the scenarios are associated with high specific CO 2 emission reductions per unit of wood used. The third scenario, an extreme assumption that all European countries will consume 1-m 3 sawn wood per capita by 2030, had large effects on carbon emission, volumes and trade flows. The price changes of this scenario, however, also affected forest management in ways that greatly deviated from the partial equilibrium model projections. Our results suggest that increased wood construction will have a minor impact on forest management and forest carbon stocks. To analyse larger perturbations on the demand side, a market equilibrium model seems crucial. However, for that analytical system to work properly, the market and forest regional models must be better synchronized than here, in particular regarding assumptions on timber supply behaviour. Also, bioenergy as a commodity in market and forest models needs to be considered to study new market developments; those modules are currently missing.

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