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14 492 calls were received during the specified times in the trial year (7308 in the control arm and 7184 in the intervention arm) concerning 10 134 patients (10.4% of the registered population). There were no substantial differences in the age and sex of patients in the intervention and control groups, though male patients were underrepresented overall. Reasons for calling the service were consistent with previous studies. Nurses managed 49.8% of calls during intervention periods without referral to a general practitioner. A 69% reduction in telephone advice from a general practitioner, together with a 38% reduction in patient attendance at primary care centres and a 23% reduction in home visits was observed during intervention periods. Statistical equivalence was observed in the number of deaths within seven days, in the number of emergency hospital admissions, and in the number of attendances at accident and emergency departments. Conclusions Nurse telephone consultation produced substantial changes in call management, reducing overall workload of general practitioners by 50% while allowing callers faster access to health information and advice. It was not associated with an increase in the number of adverse events. This model of out of hours primary care is safe and effective.

This paper describes how system dynamics was used as a central part of a whole-system review of emergency and ondemand health care in Nottingham, England. Based on interviews with 30 key individuals across health and social care, a 'conceptual map' of the system was developed, showing potential patient pathways through the system. This was used to construct a stock-flow model, populated with current activity data, in order to simulate patient flows and to identify system bottle-necks. Without intervention, assuming current trends continue, Nottingham hospitals are unlikely to reach elective admission targets or achieve the government target of 82% bed occupancy. Admissions from general practice had the greatest influence on occupancy rates. Preventing a small number of emergency admissions in elderly patients showed a substantial effect, reducing bed occupancy by 1% per annum over 5 years. Modelling indicated a range of undesirable outcomes associated with continued growth in demand for emergency care, but also considerable potential to intervene to alleviate these problems, in particular by increasing the care options available in the community.

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