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Summary Background Passively collected malaria case data are the foundation for public health decision making. However, because of population-level immunity, infections might not always be sufficiently symptomatic to prompt individuals to seek care. Understanding the proportion of all Plasmodium spp infections expected to be detected by the health system becomes particularly paramount in elimination settings. The aim of this study was to determine the association between the proportion of infections detected and transmission intensity for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax in several global endemic settings. Methods The proportion of infections detected in routine malaria data, P(Detect), was derived from paired household cross-sectional survey and routinely collected malaria data within health facilities. P(Detect) was estimated using a Bayesian model in 431 clusters spanning the Americas, Africa, and Asia. The association between P(Detect) and malaria prevalence was assessed using log-linear regression models. Changes in P(Detect) over time were evaluated using data from 13 timepoints over 2 years from The Gambia. Findings The median estimated P(Detect) across all clusters was 12·5% (IQR 5·3–25·0) for P falciparum and 10·1% (5·0–18·3) for P vivax and decreased as the estimated log-PCR community prevalence increased (adjusted odds ratio [OR] for P falciparum 0·63, 95% CI 0·57–0·69; adjusted OR for P vivax 0·52, 0·47–0·57). Factors associated with increasing P(Detect) included smaller catchment population size, high transmission season, improved care-seeking behaviour by infected individuals, and recent increases (within the previous year) in transmission intensity. Interpretation The proportion of all infections detected within health systems increases once transmission intensity is sufficiently low. The likely explanation for P falciparum is that reduced exposure to infection leads to lower levels of protective immunity in the population, increasing the likelihood that infected individuals will become symptomatic and seek care. These factors might also be true for P vivax but a better understanding of the transmission biology is needed to attribute likely reasons for the observed trend. In low transmission and pre-elimination settings, enhancing access to care and improvements in care-seeking behaviour of infected individuals will lead to an increased proportion of infections detected in the community and might contribute to accelerating the interruption of transmission. Funding Wellcome Trust.

BackgroundMonitoring the impact of case management strategies at large scale is essential to evaluate the public health benefit they confer. The use of methodologies relying on objective and standardized endpoints, such as drug levels in the blood, should be encouraged. Population drug use, diagnosis and treatment appropriateness in case of fever according to patient history and anti-malarials blood concentration was evaluated.MethodsA cross-sectional survey took place between May and August 2015 in three regions of Tanzania with different levels of malaria endemicity. Interviews were conducted and blood samples were collected by dried blood spots through household surveys for further anti-malarial measurements. Appropriate testing when individuals attended care was defined as a patient with history of fever being tested for malaria and appropriate treatment as (i) having anti-malarial in the blood if the test result was positive (ii) having anti-malarial in the blood if the person was not tested, and (iii) no anti-malarial in the blood when the test result was negative.ResultsAmongst 6391 participants included in the anti-malarial analysis, 20.8% (1330/6391) had anti-malarial drug detected in the blood. Only 28.0% (372/1330) of the individuals with anti-malarials in their blood reported the use of anti-malarials within the previous month. Amongst all participants, 16.0% (1021/6391) reported having had a fever in the previous 2 weeks and 37.5% of them (383/1021) had detectable levels of anti-malarials in the blood. Of the individuals who sought care in health facilities, 69.4% (172/248) were tested and 52.0% (129/248) appropriately treated. When other providers were sought, 6% (23/382) of the persons were appropriately tested and 44.2% (169/382) appropriately treated. Overall, the proportion of individuals treated was larger than that being tested [47.3% (298/630) treated, 31.0% (195/630) tested].ConclusionThis study showed high prevalence of circulating anti-malarial drug in the sampled population. Efforts should be made to increase rapid diagnostic tests use at all levels of health care and improve compliance to test result in order to target febrile patients that are sick with malaria and reduce drug pressure. Objective drug measurements collected at community level represent a reliable tool to evaluate overall impact of case management strategies on population drug pressure.