The United Nations recently released population projections based on data until 2012 and a Bayesian probabilistic methodology. Analysis of these data reveals that, contrary to previous literature, world population is unlikely to stop growing this century. There is an 80% probability that world population, now 7.2 billion, will increase to between 9.6 and 12.3 billion in 2100. This uncertainty is much smaller than the range from the traditional UN high and low variants. Much of the increase is expected to happen in Africa, in part due to higher fertility and a recent slowdown in the pace of fertility decline. Also, the ratio of working age people to older people is likely to decline substantially in all countries, even those that currently have young populations.The United Nations (UN) is the leading agency that projects world population into the future on a regular basis (2). Every two years it publishes revised data of the populations of all countries by age and sex, as well as fertility, mortality and migration rates, in a biennial publication called the World Population Prospects (WPP). In July 2014, probabilistic projections for individual countries to 2100 were released Unlike previous projections, they allow us to quantify our confidence in projected future trends using established methods of statistical inference. They are based on recent data, including the results of the 2010 round of censuses and recent surveys until 2012, as well as the most recent data on incidence, ‡

We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for producing probabilistic forecasts of male period life expectancy at birth for all the countries of the world from the present to 2100. Such forecasts would be an input to the production of probabilistic population projections for all countries, which is currently being considered by the United Nations. To evaluate the method, we did an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment, fitting the model to the data from 1950–1995, and using the estimated model to forecast for the subsequent ten years. The ten-year predictions had a mean absolute error of about 1 year, about 40% less than the current UN methodology. The probabilistic forecasts were calibrated, in the sense that (for example) the 80% prediction intervals contained the truth about 80% of the time. We illustrate our method with results from Madagascar (a typical country with steadily improving life expectancy), Latvia (a country that has had a mortality crisis), and Japan (a leading country). We also show aggregated results for South Asia, a region with eight countries. Free publicly available software packages called and are available to implement the method.

BackgroundThe outcomes from an antiretroviral treatment (ART) program within the public sector in Myanmar have not been reported. This study documents retention and the risk factors for attrition in a large ART public health program in Myanmar.MethodsA retrospective analysis of a cohort of adult patients enrolled in the Integrated HIV Care (IHC) Program between June 2005 and October 2011 and followed up until April 2012 is presented. The primary outcome was attrition (death or loss-follow up); a total of 10,223 patients were included in the 5-year cumulative survival analysis. Overall 5,718 patients were analyzed for the risk factors for attrition using both logistic regression and flexible parametric survival models.ResultThe mean age was 36 years, 61% of patients were male, and the median follow up was 13.7 months. Overall 8,564 (84%) patients were retained in ART program: 750 (7%) were lost to follow-up and 909 (9%) died. During the 3 years follow-up, 1,542 attritions occurred over 17,524 person years at risk, giving an incidence density of 8.8% per year. The retention rates of participants at 12, 24, 36, 48 and 60 months were 86, 82, 80, 77 and 74% respectively. In multivariate analysis, being male, having high WHO staging, a low CD4 count, being anaemic or having low BMI at baseline were independent risk factors for attrition; tuberculosis (TB) treatment at ART initiation, a prior ART course before program enrollment and literacy were predictors for retention in the program.ConclusionHigh retention rate of IHC program was documented within the public sector in Myanmar. Early diagnosis of HIV, nutritional support, proper investigation and treatment for patients with low CD4 counts and for those presenting with anaemia are crucial issues towards improvement of HIV program outcomes in resource-limited settings.

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THIS STUDY REPORTS THE importance 244 parents of six-year-old children living in Singapore placed on cognitive (problem-solving and creativity) and non-cognitive (practical school skills and conforming) behaviours. Our research team hypothesised that, as the age of the parent increased, the importance placed on each covariant skill (problem solving, creativity, practical, conformity) would differ. It was further hypothesised that the importance placed on cognitive skills compared with noncognitive skills for six-year-old children would decrease. Our results indicate that, when controlling for demographics, as parents aged they did place different levels of importance on each of the cognitive skills but not the non-cognitive skills. Furthermore, older parents placed less importance on cognitive compared with non-cognitive skills. The gap between average cognitive rating and average non-cognitive scores decreased as parents' age increased. This gap was found to be smaller for Chinese than non-Chinese parents. It decreased with age when controlling for child gender and parent ethnicity, gender and occupation.