Irritability cuts across many pediatric disorders and is a common presenting complaint in child psychiatry; however, its neural mechanisms remain unclear. One core pathophysiological deficit of irritability is aberrant responses to frustrative nonreward. Here, we conducted a preliminary fMRI study to examine the ability of functional connectivity during frustrative nonreward to predict irritability in a transdiagnostic sample. This study included 69 youths (mean age = 14.55 years) with varying levels of irritability across diagnostic groups: disruptive mood dysregulation disorder (n = 20), attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (n = 14), anxiety disorder (n = 12), and controls (n = 23). During fMRI, participants completed a frustrating cognitive flexibility task. Frustration was evoked by manipulating task difficulty such that, on trials requiring cognitive flexibility, “frustration” blocks had a 50% error rate and some rigged feedback, while “nonfrustration” blocks had a 10% error rate. Frustration and nonfrustration blocks were randomly interspersed. Child and parent reports of the affective reactivity index were used as dimensional measures of irritability. Connectome-based predictive modeling, a machine learning approach, with tenfold cross-validation was conducted to identify networks predicting irritability. Connectivity during frustration (but not nonfrustration) blocks predicted child-reported irritability (ρ = 0.24, root mean square error = 2.02, p = 0.03, permutation testing, 1000 iterations, one-tailed). Results were adjusted for age, sex, medications, motion, ADHD, and anxiety symptoms. The predictive networks of irritability were primarily within motor-sensory networks; among motor-sensory, subcortical, and salience networks; and between these networks and frontoparietal and medial frontal networks. This study provides preliminary evidence that individual differences in irritability may be associated with functional connectivity during frustration, a phenotype-relevant state.

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Memory deficits are observed in a range of psychiatric disorders, but it is unclear whether memory deficits arise from a shared brain correlate across disorders or from various dysfunctions unique to each disorder. Connectome-based predictive modeling is a computational method that captures individual differences in functional connectomes associated with behavioral phenotypes such as memory. We used publicly available task-based functional MRI data from patients with schizophrenia (n = 33), bipolar disorder (n = 34), attention deficit hyper-activity disorder (n = 32), and healthy controls (n = 73) to model the macroscale brain networks associated with working, short- and long-term memory. First, we use 10-fold and leave-group-out analyses to demonstrate that the same macroscale brain networks subserve memory across diagnostic groups and that individual differences in memory performance are related to individual differences within networks distributed throughout the brain, including the subcortex, default mode network, limbic network, and cerebellum. Next, we show that diagnostic groups are associated with significant differences in whole-brain functional connectivity that are distinct from the predictive models of memory. Finally, we show that models trained on the transdiagnostic sample generalize to novel, healthy participants (n = 515) from the Human Connectome Project. These results suggest that despite significant differences in whole-brain patterns of functional connectivity between diagnostic groups, the core macroscale brain networks that subserve memory are shared.

Predictive modeling using neuroimaging data has the potential to improve our understanding of the neurobiology underlying psychiatric disorders and putatively information interventions. Accordingly, there is a plethora of literature reviewing published studies, the mathematics underlying machine learning, and the best practices for using these approaches. As our knowledge of mental health and machine learning continue to evolve, we instead aim to look forward and “predict” topics that we believe will be important in current and future studies. Some of the most discussed topics in machine learning, such as bias and fairness, the handling of dirty data, and interpretable models, may be less familiar to the broader community using neuroimaging-based predictive modeling in psychiatry. In a similar vein, transdiagnostic research and targeting brain-based features for psychiatric intervention are modern topics in psychiatry that predictive models are well-suited to tackle. In this work, we target an audience who is a researcher familiar with the fundamental procedures of machine learning and who wishes to increase their knowledge of ongoing topics in the field. We aim to accelerate the utility and applications of neuroimaging-based predictive models for psychiatric research by highlighting and considering these topics. Furthermore, though not a focus, these ideas generalize to neuroimaging-based predictive modeling in other clinical neurosciences and predictive modeling with different data types (e.g., digital health data).