Abstract. In Finland, Olkiluoto Island on the western coast has been selected as a repository site for spent nuclear fuel. Due to the shallow sea areas around the island, the postglacial land uplift is going to change the landscape within the next millennia. For instance, new lakes and mires will develop on the present offshore areas. Concerning radionuclide transport models, the properties of the future ecosystems surrounding Olkiluoto Island can be forecast based on the properties of present lakes and mires. Due to the lack of site-specific data, lakes and mires of various successional stages were selected within a larger geographical area as analogues of the future ones. Here we present an example of a systematic process for selection of appropriate analogue sites.

Livestock production is important for food security, nutrition, and landscape maintenance, but it is associated with several environmental impacts. To assess the risk and benefits arising from livestock production, transparent and robust indicators are required, such as those offered by life cycle assessment. A central question in such approaches is how environmental burden is allocated to livestock products and to manure that is re-used for agricultural production. To incentivize sustainable use of manure, it should be considered as a co-product as long as it is not disposed of, or wasted, or applied in excess of crop nutrient needs, in which case it should be treated as a waste. This paper proposes a theoretical approach to define nutrient requirements based on nutrient response curves to economic and physical optima and a pragmatic approach based on crop nutrient yield adjusted for nutrient losses to atmosphere and water. Allocation of environmental burden to manure and other livestock products is then based on the nutrient value from manure for crop production using the price of fertilizer nutrients. We illustrate and discuss the proposed method with two case studies.

Designing efficient agri-environmental policies for agricultural nutrient load reductions calls for information on the costs of emission reduction measures. This study develops an empirical framework for estimating abatement costs for nutrient loading from agricultural land. Nitrogen abatement costs and the phosphorus load reductions associated with nitrogen abatement are derived for crop farming in south-western Finland. The model is used to evaluate the effect of the Common Agricultural Policy reform currently underway on nutrient abatement costs. Results indicate that an efficiently designed policy aimed at a 50% reduction in agricultural nitrogen load would cost € 48 to € 35 million, or € 3756 to € 2752 per farm.Key-words: water pollution, agriculture, abatement, nitrogen, phosphorus, nutrient load IntroductionExcessive concentrations of nutrients that regulate phytoplankton growth cause eutrophication of marine and freshwater ecosystems. The most heavily loaded marine areas in Europe show symptoms of severe eutrophication (see for example AErtebjerg et al. 2001). The Baltic Sea ecosystem has proved particularly vulnerable to nutrient pollution. Blooms of toxic blue-green algae occur during the warm summer months, and filamentous algae cover the seabed in coastal areas. Eutrophication results in significant damages through reduced value of fisheries and recreational activities (e.g. Gren et al. 1997, Söderqvist and Scharin 2000, Sandström et al. 2000, Kosenius 2004. Nutrient loading from land-based sources and the atmosphere builds up nutrient concentrations. The state of eutrophied water ecosystems can be improved by reducing nutrient loads from inland sources, which include agriculture, municipalities and industry. Agriculture has been identified as the major source of eutrophying nutrients in developed countries (see e. g. Shortle and Abler 2001). For example in the Nordic countries, municipal and industrial nutrient A G R I C U L T U R A L A N D F O O D S C I E N C E Helin, J. et al. Abatement costs for agricultural nutrient load in SW Finlandloads have been reduced significantly during the last few decades, while agricultural nutrient loads remain substantial (HELCOM 2005).Linking nutrient load reductions with the costs of those reductions is essential for informed decision making. Abatement costs are relatively easy to assess in the case of municipal and industrial point-source pollution, whereas quantifying abatement costs for agricultural non-point pollution poses a challenge (see e.g. Russel and Shogren 1993). Nutrient removal at municipal and industrial sources requires setting up wastewater treatment facilities, after which chemical or biological nutrient removal occurs at an approximately constant cost. Agricultural abatement instead takes place through changes in agricultural practices and through adopting abatement measures that filter runoff, such as buffer strips and wetlands. Nutrient loading is affected both by agricultural management practices, such as crop choice, fertilizer use, and til...

We studied the effects of catchment characteristics (soil type and land use) on the concentration and quality of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in river water and on the bacterial degradation of terrestrial DOM. The share of organic soil was the strongest predictor of high concentrations of dissolved organic carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus (DOC, DON, and DOP, respectively), and was linked to DOM quality. Soil type was more important than land use in determining the concentration and quality of riverine DOM. On average, 5-9 % of the DOC and 45 % of the DON were degraded by the bacterial communities within 2-3 months. Simultaneously, the proportion of humic-like compounds in the DOM pool increased. Bioavailable DON accounted for approximately one-third of the total bioavailable dissolved nitrogen, and thus, terrestrial DON can markedly contribute to the coastal plankton dynamics and support the heterotrophic food web.

Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), developed at global scale, comprise narrative descriptions and quantifications of future world developments that are intended for climate change scenario analysis. However, their extension to national and regional scales can be challenging. Here, we present SSP narratives co-developed with stakeholders for the agriculture and food sector in Finland. These are derived from intensive discussions at a workshop attended by approximately 39 participants offering a range of sectoral perspectives. Using general background descriptions of the SSPs for Europe, facilitated discussions were held in parallel for each of four SSPs reflecting very different contexts for the development of the sector up to 2050 and beyond. Discussions focused on five themes from the perspectives of consumers, producers and policy-makers, included a joint final session and allowed for post-workshop feedback. Results reflect careful sector-based, national-level interpretations of the global SSPs from which we have constructed consensus narratives. Our results also show important critical remarks and minority viewpoints. Interesting features of the Finnish narratives compared to the global SSP narratives include greater emphasis on environmental quality; significant land abandonment in SSPs with reduced livestock production and increased plant-based diets; continued need for some farm subsidies across all SSPs and opportunities for diversifying domestic production under scenarios of restricted trade. Our results can contribute to the development of more detailed national long-term scenarios for food and agriculture that are both relevant for local stakeholders and researchers as well as being consistent with global scenarios being applied internationally.