A headwater basin in the Sumava Mountains (Czech Republic), the upper Vydra basin, has undergone forest disturbance as a result of repeated windstorms, a bark beetle outbreak, and forest management. This study analyzed the long-term hydro-climatic changes by using a combination of statistical analyses, including Mann-Kendall tests, CUSUM analysis, Buishand's and Petitt's homogeneity tests, and Kriging. Although the runoff balance over the study period experienced no apparent changes due to climate warming and forest disturbance, significant changes were detected in the share of direct runoff and baseflow, intra-annual variability of the runoff regime, seasonal runoff patterns, and the distribution of peak and low flow events. The seasonal runoff substantially shifted from summers (decreased from 40% to 28%) to springs (increased by 10%). The occurrence of peak flow events has doubled since the 1980s, with a seasonal shift from late spring towards the early spring, while the occurrence of low-flow days decreased by two-thirds. By 1990, these changes were followed by a seasonal shift in runoff from autumn to mid-winter. The changes in hydrological regime in the mid-mountain basin indicate the sensitivity of its hydrological system and the complexity of its feedback with the changing environment. OPEN ACCESSWater 2015, 7 3321

This paper explores the potential of the joint application of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)-based photogrammetry and an automated sensor network for building a hydrodynamic flood model of a montane stream. UAV-based imagery was used for three-dimensional (3D) photogrammetric reconstruction of the stream channel, achieving a resolution of 1.5 cm/pixel. Automated ultrasonic water level gauges, operating with a 10 min interval, were used as a source of hydrological data for the model calibration, and the MIKE 21 hydrodynamic model was used for building the flood model. Three different horizontal schematizations of the channel-an orthogonal grid, curvilinear grid, and flexible mesh-were used to evaluate the effect of spatial discretization on the results. The research was performed on Javori Brook, a montane stream in the Sumava (Bohemian Forest) Mountains, Czech Republic, Central Europe, featuring a fast runoff response to precipitation events and that is located in a core zone of frequent flooding. The studied catchments have been, since 2007, equipped with automated water level gauges and, since 2013, under repeated UAV monitoring. The study revealed the high potential of these data sources for applications in hydrodynamic modeling. In addition to the ultra-high levels of spatial and temporal resolution, the major contribution is in the method's high operability, enabling the building of highly detailed flood models even in remote areas lacking conventional monitoring. The testing of the data sources and model setup indicated the limitations of the UAV reconstruction of the stream bathymetry, which was completed by the geodetic-grade global navigation satellite system (GNSS) measurements. The testing of the different model domain schematizations did not indicate the substantial differences that are typical for conventional low-resolution data, proving the high reliability of the tested modeling workflow.

There is public concern that large-scale disturbances to forest cover caused by insects and storm winds in the Bohemian Forest could intensify high water flows and enhance the expected flooding risks predicted in current regional climate change scenarios. We analysed stream discharge in Upper Vydra and Große Ohe, neighbouring catchments in the Bohemian Forest, the largest contiguous forested area in Central Europe. Upper Vydra, in the Šumava National Park, and Große Ohe (including the Upper Große Ohe headwater catchment in the Bavarian Forest National Park) are similar in size, but differ in land use cover and the extent of disturbed Norway spruce stands. Publicly available runoff and meteorological data were examined using non-parametric trend and breakpoint analysis. Together with mapped vegetation cover changes, the results were used to address the following questions: 1) are there significant changes in the hydrological cycle and, if so, do these changes relate to 2) the extent and expansion of disturbance in forests stands and/or 3) altered precipitation dynamics and thermal conditions?We found no marked overall change in annual runoff or in annual or seasonal precipitation, but a significant increase in high flows in March. This overall trend related to the marked warming in late winter and early spring (+~4 K in April, p < 0.01), irrespective of altitude and slope position. It significantly shifted the end of the snow cover period by more than three weeks to the beginning/middle of April depending on altitude, and intensified snow melt.In the Upper Große Ohe catchment, a significant decrease in catchment balance, the difference between the long term precipitation and runoff (-72 mm, 11%) was found when the loss of tree cover reached 30% of catchment area. Diminished evapotranspiration losses from severely disturbed stands increased groundwater recharge during summer and caused a significant rise in low flows in autumn.However, observed increases in late winter high flows were due to warming only. They could be further intensified by the increasing winter precipitation predicted under present climate change scenarios, and would therefore increase the risk of flooding at lower elevations.

This study analyzed the long-term alterations in runoff regime, seasonality and variability in headwater montane basins in Central Europe in response to the manifestations of climate change. We tested the common hypotheses on climate change effects on surface runoff dynamics in the Central Europe region, assuming that (i) recent climate warming will result in shifts in the seasonality of runoff, (ii) the runoff balance will remain without significant changes and (iii) that higher variability in runoff can be expected. The analyses were done on eight montane catchments in four mid-latitude mountain ranges in Central Europe, based on the uninterrupted time series of daily discharge observations from 1952 to 2018. We used 33 indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHA), 34 indicators of environmental flow components, the baseflow index, the calculation of surplus and deficit volumes and the frequency of peak and low flows. Homogeneity testing using Buishand, Pettitt and SNHT tests was applied to test the response of the hydrological alteration indicators to climate warming. We have proved the significant shifts in runoff seasonality, coinciding with the timing of the air temperature rise, marked by earlier snowmelt, followed by a decline in spring flows and a prolonged period of low flows. There was detected a rise in the baseflow index across the mountain ranges. Unlike the common hypotheses, the expected rise of runoff variability and frequency of peak flows was not demonstrated. However, we have identified a significant change of the flood hydrographs, tending to steeper shape with shorter recessing limbs as a sign of rising inner dynamics of flood events in montane catchments.

The Thaya river basin is one of the key river basins in the southern part of the Czech Republic. Due to extensive river regulations and partial drainage of the basin area, it belongs to river basins sensitive to climate change impacts. This is supported by significant negative runoff trends over the past 40 years. The main aim of this contribution is to analyze impacts of the hypothetical land use changes on the hydrological processes of the upper Thaya basin. In this study, we used a hydrological Mike SHE model. The physically based and spatially distributed model Mike SHE was calibrated and validated using measured river discharge data in the three hydrological profiles for the period 1991&#8211;2020. Selected hypothetical adaptation land use scenarios including the vegetation cover changes were compared to the reference scenario (represents the current land use of the basin) to analyze the impacts of the simulated land use changes on the hydrological processes in the basin. Except the field management changes, the land use scenarios encompassed extreme vegetation changes, where the entire basin in the model was changed to (1) grassland, (2) mixed deciduous-coniferous forest, (3) deciduous forest, or (4) cropland. These extreme land use scenarios were analyzed for several CMIP6 downscaled climate models and different RCP emissions scenarios up to the end of the first half of the 21st century. The results showed that the evapotranspiration is the dominant water loss component for all simulated land use scenarios in the basin. The highest evapotranspiration was modeled for the mixed deciduous-coniferous forest, while the lowest was for the grassland and cropland scenarios. The Mike SHE model also simulated that the total runoff was lowest for both forest scenarios. Results of the study showed the sensitivity of the river basin on the climate change impacts, where a slight increase of the evapotranspiration value in the basin has a significant effect on the total runoff from the basin. This study was conducted within the evaluating and designing nature-based adaptation measures to climate change in the Thaya river basin.