Background This study aimed to determine the impact of preoperative exposure to intravenous contrast for CT and the risk of developing postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods This prospective, multicentre cohort study included adults undergoing gastrointestinal resection, stoma reversal or liver resection. Both elective and emergency procedures were included. Preoperative exposure to intravenous contrast was defined as exposure to contrast administered for the purposes of CT up to 7 days before surgery. The primary endpoint was the rate of AKI within 7 days. Propensity score‐matched models were adjusted for patient, disease and operative variables. In a sensitivity analysis, a propensity score‐matched model explored the association between preoperative exposure to contrast and AKI in the first 48 h after surgery. Results A total of 5378 patients were included across 173 centres. Overall, 1249 patients (23·2 per cent) received intravenous contrast. The overall rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery was 13·4 per cent (718 of 5378). In the propensity score‐matched model, preoperative exposure to contrast was not associated with AKI within 7 days (odds ratio (OR) 0·95, 95 per cent c.i. 0·73 to 1·21; P = 0·669). The sensitivity analysis showed no association between preoperative contrast administration and AKI within 48 h after operation (OR 1·09, 0·84 to 1·41; P = 0·498). Conclusion There was no association between preoperative intravenous contrast administered for CT up to 7 days before surgery and postoperative AKI. Risk of contrast‐induced nephropathy should not be used as a reason to avoid contrast‐enhanced CT.

The peri-operative use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin-2 receptor blockers is thought to be associated with an increased risk of postoperative acute kidney injury. To reduce this risk, these agents are commonly withheld during the peri-operative period. This study aimed to investigate if withholding angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin-2 receptor blockers peri-operatively reduces the risk of acute kidney injury following major non-cardiac surgery. Patients undergoing elective major surgery on the gastrointestinal tract and/or the liver were eligible for inclusion in this prospective study. The primary outcome was the development of acute kidney injury within seven days of operation. Adjusted multi-level models were used to account for centre-level effects and propensity score matching was used to reduce the effects of selection bias between treatment groups. A total of 949 patients were included from 160 centres across the UK and Republic of Ireland. From this population, 573 (60.4%) patients had their angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin-2 receptor blockers withheld during the peri-operative period. One hundred and seventy-five (18.4%) patients developed acute kidney injury; there was no difference in the incidence of acute kidney injury between patients who had their angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin-2 receptor blockers continued or withheld (107 (18.7%) vs. 68 (18.1%), respectively; p = 0.914). Following propensity matching, withholding angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin-2 receptor blockers did not demonstrate a protective effect against the development of postoperative acute kidney injury (OR (95%CI) 0.89 (0.58-1.34); p = 0.567).

Background Postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common complication of major gastrointestinal surgery with an impact on short- and long-term survival. No validated system for risk stratification exists for this patient group. This study aimed to validate externally a prognostic model for AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery in two multicentre cohort studies. Methods The Outcomes After Kidney injury in Surgery (OAKS) prognostic model was developed to predict risk of AKI in the 7 days after surgery using six routine datapoints (age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker). Validation was performed within two independent cohorts: a prospective multicentre, international study (‘IMAGINE’) of patients undergoing elective colorectal surgery (2018); and a retrospective regional cohort study (‘Tayside’) in major abdominal surgery (2011–2015). Multivariable logistic regression was used to predict risk of AKI, with multiple imputation used to account for data missing at random. Prognostic accuracy was assessed for patients at high risk (greater than 20 per cent) of postoperative AKI. Results In the validation cohorts, 12.9 per cent of patients (661 of 5106) in IMAGINE and 14.7 per cent (106 of 719 patients) in Tayside developed 7-day postoperative AKI. Using the OAKS model, 558 patients (9.6 per cent) were classified as high risk. Less than 10 per cent of patients classified as low-risk developed AKI in either cohort (negative predictive value greater than 0.9). Upon external validation, the OAKS model retained an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curve of range 0.655–0.681 (Tayside 95 per cent c.i. 0.596 to 0.714; IMAGINE 95 per cent c.i. 0.659 to 0.703), sensitivity values range 0.323–0.352 (IMAGINE 95 per cent c.i. 0.281 to 0.368; Tayside 95 per cent c.i. 0.253 to 0.461), and specificity range 0.881–0.890 (Tayside 95 per cent c.i. 0.853 to 0.905; IMAGINE 95 per cent c.i. 0.881 to 0.899). Conclusion The OAKS prognostic model can identify patients who are not at high risk of postoperative AKI after gastrointestinal surgery with high specificity. Presented to Association of Surgeons in Training (ASiT) International Conference 2018 (Edinburgh, UK), European Society of Coloproctology (ESCP) International Conference 2018 (Nice, France), SARS (Society of Academic and Research Surgery) 2020 (Virtual, UK).

Background Cardiovascular disease remains the leading cause of death worldwide. Previously, we identified a growing disparity between Western and Eastern European countries for mortality from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease (CVD). Purpose To describe current trends in mortality from IHD and CVD. Methods IHD and CVD age-standardized death rates (ASDR) for European countries between 1990–2017 were extracted from the World Health Organization mortality database using the International Classification of Diseases 9th and 10th Edition codes. Jointpoint regression analysis was used to describe trends over this period. Results Between 1990–2017, IHD mortality declined in all included countries except Croatia (+3% in males and +23% in females). Largest mortality improvements were generally seen in Western European countries, including the Netherlands, UK and Sweden, which saw greater than 65% improvements for both sexes. Estonia was a notable exception, which, after the Netherlands, demonstrated the second highest improvement in mortality (−69% in males, −74% in females). Hungary and Greece saw the smallest improvements in IHD mortality (approximately −12% to −27%). Results of jointpoint regression analysis for selected European countries are shown in Figure 1. In 2017 Lithuania had the highest mortality rate in both males and females (279.4/100,000 and 261.3/100,000, respectively) whilst the Netherlands had the lowest mortality in males and females (32.6/100,00 and 15.3/100,000, respectively). This represents an approximately 8.5-fold difference in IHD mortality in males and a 10.5-fold difference in females between these two countries. CVD mortality declined in all included countries between 1990–2017. Estonia saw the greatest improvements in both males and females (−80.8% and −84.9%, respectively), followed by Austria, Portugal and the Czech Republic (over 70% reductions in both sexes). Bulgaria, Romania and Lithuania saw the smallest reductions (approximately −17% to −33%). In 2017, Bulgaria had the highest CVD mortality rate in both males and females (149.9/100,000 and 113.1/100,000, respectively), whilst the lowest mortality rate was observed in Austria (21.8/100,000 and 19.5/100,000 for males and females, respectively). This represents an approximately 7-fold difference in CVD mortality in males and a 6-fold difference in females between these two countries. Conclusions IHD and CVD mortality rates continue to decrease for men and women across Europe. While certain Eastern European countries have demonstrated considerable mortality improvements over this observation period, in general the disparity between Eastern and Western Europe persists, with further work required to understand and address these inequalities. Squares: male. Circles: female Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

Background: Breast is the commonest site of cancer in females worldwide, contributing to 25.4% of the newly diagnoses cases in 2018. It is the second most common cause of death in cancers following lungs. Past two decades has seen advancements in screening technologies and guidelines, as well as new modalities for treatment. Few studies have reported on breast cancer trends in the 21 st century. Our study reports and compares trends in breast cancer mortality in the European Union (EU) and UK.