The TRAPPIST-1, Proxima Centauri, and LHS 1140 systems are the most exciting prospects for future follow-up observations of potentially inhabited planets. All orbit nearby M-stars and are likely tidally locked in 1:1 spinorbit states, which motivates the consideration of the effects that tidal locking might have on planetary habitability. On Earth, periods of global glaciation (snowballs) may have been essential for habitability and remote signs of life (biosignatures) because they are correlated with increases in the complexity of life and in the atmospheric oxygen concentration. In this paper we investigate the snowball bifurcation (sudden onset of global glaciation) on tidally locked planets using both an energy balance model and an intermediate-complexity global climate model. We show that tidally locked planets are unlikely to exhibit a snowball bifurcation as a direct result of the spatial pattern of insolation they receive. Instead they will smoothly transition from partial to complete ice coverage and back. A major implication of this work is that tidally locked planets with an active carbon cycle should not be found in a snowball state. Moreover, this work implies that tidally locked planets near the outer edge of the habitable zone with low CO 2 outgassing fluxes will equilibrate with a small unglaciated substellar region rather than cycling between warm and snowball states. More work is needed to determine how the lack of a snowball bifurcation might affect the development of life on a tidally locked planet.
Terrestrial planets orbiting within the habitable zones of M-stars are likely to become tidally locked in a 1:1 spin:orbit configuration and are prime targets for future characterization efforts. An issue of importance for the potential habitability of terrestrial planets is whether they could experience snowball events (periods of global glaciation). Previous work using an intermediate complexity atmospheric Global Climate Model (GCM) with no ocean heat transport suggested that tidally locked planets would smoothly transition to a snowball, in contrast with Earth, which has bifurcations and hysteresis in climate state associated with global glaciation. In this paper, we use a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM (ROCKE-3D) to model tidally locked planets with no continents. We chose this configuration in order to consider a case that we expect to have high ocean heat transport. We show that including ocean heat transport does not reintroduce the snowball bifurcation. An implication of this result is that a tidally locked planet in the habitable zone is unlikely to be found in a snowball state for a geologically significant period of time.
A critical question in astrobiology is whether exo-Earth candidates (EECs) are Earth-like, in that they originate life that progressively oxygenates their atmospheres similarly to Earth. We propose answering this question statistically by searching for O2 and O3 on EECs with missions such as HabEx or LUVOIR. We explore the ability of these missions to constrain the fraction, f E, of EECs that are Earth-like in the event of a null detection of O2 or O3 on all observed EECs. We use the Planetary Spectrum Generator to simulate observations of EECs with O2 and O3 levels based on Earth’s history. We consider four instrument designs—LUVOIR-A (15 m), LUVOIR-B (8 m), HabEx with a starshade (4 m, “HabEx/SS”), and HabEx without a starshade (4 m, “HabEx/no-SS”)—as well as three estimates of the occurrence rate of EECs (η earth): 24%, 5%, and 0.5%. In the case of a null detection, we find that for η earth = 24%, LUVOIR-A, LUVOIR-B, and HabEx/SS would constrain f E to ≤0.094, ≤0.18, and ≤0.56, respectively. This also indicates that if f E is greater than these upper limits, we are likely to detect O3 on at least one EEC. Conversely, we find that HabEx/no-SS cannot constrain f E, due to the lack of a coronagraph ultraviolet channel. For η earth = 5%, only LUVOIR-A and LUVOIR-B would be able to constrain f E, to ≤0.45 and ≤0.85, respectively. For η earth = 0.5%, none of the missions would allow us to constrain f E, due to the low number of detectable EECs. We conclude that the ability to constrain f E is more robust to uncertainties in η earth for missions with larger aperture mirrors. However, all missions are susceptible to an inconclusive null detection if η earth is sufficiently low.
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