Background An increasing number of breast cancer (BC) survivors are at risk of developing contralateral breast cancer (CBC). We aimed to investigate the influence of various adjuvant systemic regimens on, subtype-specific, risk of CBC. Methods This population-based cohort study included female patients diagnosed with first invasive BC between 2003 and 2010; follow-up was complete until 2016. Clinico-pathological data were obtained from the Netherlands Cancer Registry and additional data on receptor status through linkage with PALGA: the Dutch Pathology Registry. Cumulative incidences (death and distant metastases as competing risk) and hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated for all invasive metachronous CBC and CBC subtypes. Results Of 83 144 BC patients, 2816 developed a CBC; the 10-year cumulative incidence was 3.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.7% to 4.0%). Overall, adjuvant chemotherapy (HR = 0.70, 95% CI = 0.62 to 0.80), endocrine therapy (HR = 0.46, 95% CI = 0.41 to 0.52), and trastuzumab with chemotherapy (HR = 0.57, 95% CI = 0.45 to 0.73) were strongly associated with a reduced CBC risk. Specifically, taxane-containing chemotherapy (HR = 0.48, 95% CI = 0.36 to 0.62) and aromatase inhibitors (HR = 0.32, 95% CI = 0.23 to 0.44) were associated with a large CBC risk reduction. More detailed analyses showed that endocrine therapy statistically significantly decreased the risk of estrogen receptor (ER)-positive CBC (HR = 0.41, 95% CI = 0.36 to 0.47) but not ER-negative CBC (HR = 1.32, 95% CI = 0.90 to 1.93) compared with no endocrine therapy. Patients receiving chemotherapy for ER-negative first BC had a higher risk of ER-negative CBC from 5 years of follow-up (HR = 2.84, 95% CI = 1.62 to 4.99) compared with patients not receiving chemotherapy for ER-negative first BC. Conclusion Endocrine therapy, chemotherapy, as well as trastuzumab with chemotherapy reduce CBC risk. However, each adjuvant therapy regimen had a different impact on the CBC subtype distribution. Taxane-containing chemotherapy and aromatase inhibitors were associated with the largest CBC risk reduction.

BackgroundBreast cancer survivors are at risk for contralateral breast cancer (CBC), with the consequent burden of further treatment and potentially less favorable prognosis. We aimed to develop and validate a CBC risk prediction model and evaluate its applicability for clinical decision-making.MethodsWe included data of 132,756 invasive non-metastatic breast cancer patients from 20 studies with 4682 CBC events and a median follow-up of 8.8 years. We developed a multivariable Fine and Gray prediction model (PredictCBC-1A) including patient, primary tumor, and treatment characteristics and BRCA1/2 germline mutation status, accounting for the competing risks of death and distant metastasis. We also developed a model without BRCA1/2 mutation status (PredictCBC-1B) since this information was available for only 6% of patients and is routinely unavailable in the general breast cancer population. Prediction performance was evaluated using calibration and discrimination, calculated by a time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) at 5 and 10 years after diagnosis of primary breast cancer, and an internal-external cross-validation procedure. Decision curve analysis was performed to evaluate the net benefit of the model to quantify clinical utility.ResultsIn the multivariable model, BRCA1/2 germline mutation status, family history, and systemic adjuvant treatment showed the strongest associations with CBC risk. The AUC of PredictCBC-1A was 0.63 (95% prediction interval (PI) at 5 years, 0.52–0.74; at 10 years, 0.53–0.72). Calibration-in-the-large was -0.13 (95% PI: -1.62–1.37), and the calibration slope was 0.90 (95% PI: 0.73–1.08). The AUC of Predict-1B at 10 years was 0.59 (95% PI: 0.52–0.66); calibration was slightly lower. Decision curve analysis for preventive contralateral mastectomy showed potential clinical utility of PredictCBC-1A between thresholds of 4–10% 10-year CBC risk for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers and non-carriers.ConclusionsWe developed a reasonably calibrated model to predict the risk of CBC in women of European-descent; however, prediction accuracy was moderate. Our model shows potential for improved risk counseling, but decision-making regarding contralateral preventive mastectomy, especially in the general breast cancer population where limited information of the mutation status in BRCA1/2 is available, remains challenging.

This is a repository copy of Breast cancer polygenic risk score and contralateral breast cancer risk.

Our study aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of trends in incidence, survival, mortality and treatment of first primary invasive breast cancer (BC), according to age, stage and receptor subtype in the Netherlands between 1989 and 2017. Data from all women diagnosed with first primary stage I to IV BC (N = 320 249) were obtained from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. BC mortality and general population data were retrieved from Statistics Netherlands. Age‐standardised incidence and mortality rates were calculated with annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) statistics. The relative survival (RS) was used as estimator for disease‐specific survival. The BC incidence for all BC patients combined significantly increased until 2013 from 126 to 158 per 100 000 person‐years, after which a declining trend was observed. Surgery became less extensive, but (neo‐)adjuvant systemic treatments and their combinations were given more frequently. The RS improved for all age groups and for most stages and receptor subtypes, but remained stable for all subtypes since 2012 to 2013 and since 2000 to 2009 for Stage IV BC at 15 years of follow‐up. Overall, the 5‐ and 10‐year RS increased from 76.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 76.1, 77.4) and 55.9% (95% CI: 54.7, 57.1) in 1989 to 1999 to 91.0% (95% CI: 90.5, 91.5) and 82.9% (95% CI: 82.2, 83.5), respectively, in 2010 to 2016. BC mortality improved regardless of age and overall decreased from 57 to 35 per 100 000 person‐years between 1989 and 2017. In conclusion, the BC incidence in the Netherlands has steadily increased since 1989, but the latest trends show promising declines. Survival improved markedly for most patients and the mortality decreased regardless of age.