The objectives of the present study were to estimate long-term risks of osteoporotic fractures. The incidence of hip, distal forearm, proximal humerus and vertebral fracture were obtained from patient records in Malmö, Sweden. Vertebral fractures were confined to those coming to clinical attention, either as an inpatient or an outpatient case. Patient records were examined to exclude individuals with prior fractures at the same site. Future mortality rates were computed for each year of age from Poisson models using the Swedish Patient Register and the Statistical Year Book. The incidence and lifetime risk of any fracture were determined from the proportion of individuals fracture-free from the age of 45 years. Lifetime risk of shoulder, forearm, hip and spine fracture were 13.3%, 21.5%, 23.3% and 15.4% respectively in women at the age of 45 years. Corresponding values for men at the age of 45 years were 4.4%, 5.2%, 11.2% and 8.6%. The risk of any of these fractures was 47.3% and 23.8% in women and men respectively. Remaining lifetime risk was stable with age for hip fracture, but decreased by 20-30% by the age of 70 years in the case of other fractures. Ten and 15 year risks for all types of fractures increased with age until the age of 80 years, when they approached lifetime risks because of the competing probabilities of fracture and death. We conclude that fractures of the hip and spine carry higher risks than fractures at other sites, and that lifetime risks of fracture of the hip in particular have been underestimated.

The aim of this study was to examine the pattern of mortality following osteoporotic fractures at the spine, shoulder, hip, and forearm. We studied 2,847 patients with fractures at these sites identified from the radiology department in Malmö, Sweden. Poisson regression was used to compute mortality immediately after the fracture and with time. Mortality immediately after fracture was significantly higher in fracture cases than in the general population except for forearm fractures in both men and women. Mortality was higher in men than in women, but not different when adjusted for sex-specific population risks. For spine, shoulder, and hip fracture, mortality fell after the 1st year, an effect that was most marked for patients with spine fractures. The decrease in mortality risk with time was significant for hip, vertebral, and shoulder fracture. We conclude that the risk of death is increased in patients with osteoporotic fractures and that the highest risk is found immediately after the fracture event. The decreasing mortality with time after fracture may be due in part to a decrease in deaths causally related to the fracture. The extent to which early intervention for osteoporosis might avoid some of these deaths is unknown.

The aim of this study was to examine the pattern of fracture risk following a prior fracture at the spine, shoulder or hip. We studied 1918 patients with fractures at these sites identified from the Department of Radiology in Malmo who were followed for 5 years. Poisson regression was used to compute fracture rates immediately after the initial fracture and at 5 years thereafter in men and women aged 60 or 80 years. Immediate fracture risk was higher than that of the general population, more markedly so at the age of 60 than at 80 years. At the age of 60 years, the risk of hip, forearm and spine fractures were significantly increased following a prior spine, hip or shoulder fracture in men. A similar pattern was seen in women, except that the increase in risk of forearm fracture following a spine or hip fracture was not statistically significant. The incidence of further fractures at the shoulder, spine or hip fell with time after the first fracture, a fall that was significant for all fractures after a shoulder fracture, hip fracture after a spine fracture, and hip and spine fractures after a hip fracture. We conclude that the risk of a subsequent fracture immediately after an osteoporotic fracture is highest immediately after the event. This provides a rationale for very early intervention immediately after fractures to avoid recurrent fractures.

The role of androgens for bone health in elderly men is unclear. We show that free testosterone within the normal range is a predictor of BMD at predominantly cortical bone sites and of previous osteoporosis-related fractures in elderly Swedish men.Introduction: Osteoporosis-related fractures constitute a major health concern not only in women but also in men. Previous studies have clearly shown that serum levels of estradiol are associated with BMD, whereas more conflicting data have been presented regarding the predictive value of testosterone (T) for bone health in elderly men. The aim of this study was to investigate if serum levels of T are associated with BMD and/or prevalent fractures in a large cohort of elderly men. Materials and Methods:In the Swedish part of the MrOS study (n ‫ס‬ 2908; average age, 75.4 years), bone parameters were measured using DXA, and prevalent fractures were recorded using standardized questionnaires and by vertebral X-ray analyses. Serum levels of total T, total estradiol (E2), and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) were measured by radioimmunoassay, and free T (FT) and free E2 (FE2) were derived from the mass action equations. Height, weight, age, physical activity, smoking habits, and calcium intake were included together with FT and FE2 in regression models for BMD. Results: FT was an independent positive predictor of BMD in total body, total hip, femur trochanter, and arm but not in the lumbar spine. The highest independent predictive value of FT was found in the arm and the hip (with a relatively high content of cortical bone). FE2 was an independent predictor of BMD at all bone sites studied, and the highest predictive value was seen for lumbar spine (with relatively high content of trabecular bone) BMD. FT but not FE2 was a positive predictor of total body bone area and BMC. FT levels below the median were independent predictors of prevalent osteoporosis-related fractures (OR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.14-2.14; p < 0.01) and X-ray-verified vertebral fractures (OR, 2.00; 95% CI, 1.34-2.86; p < 0.001). The predictive value of FT for prevalent fractures was not affected by adjustment for BMD. Conclusions: These findings show that variation of FT within the normal range is an independent but modest predictor of BMD at predominantly cortical bone sites and of previous osteoporosis-related fractures in elderly men. Our data indicate that not only estrogens but also androgens are of importance for bone health in elderly men. Longitudinal studies investigating the predictive value of T for fracture risk in elderly men are required.

The aim of this study was to evaluate whether a prevalent vertebral deformity predicts mortality and fractures in both men and women. In the city of Malmö, 598 individuals (298 men, 300 women; age 50-80 years) were selected from the city's population and were included in the Swedish part of the European Vertebral Osteoporosis Study (EVOS). At baseline the participants answered a questionnaire and lateral spine radiographs were performed. The prevalence of subjects with vertebral deformity was assessed using a morphometric method. The mortality during a 10-year follow-up period was determined through the register of the National Swedish Board of Health and Welfare. Eighty-five men and 43 women died during the study period. The subsequent fracture incidence during the follow-up period was ascertained by postal questionnaires, telephone interviews and by a survey of the archives of the Department of Radiology in the city hospital. Thirty-seven men and 69 women sustained a fracture during the study period. Data are presented as hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) within brackets. Prevalent vertebral deformity, defined as a reduction by more than 3 standard deviations (SD) in vertebral height ratio, predicted mortality during the forthcoming decade in both men [age-adjusted HR 2.4 (95% CI 1.6-3.9)] and women [age-adjusted HR 2.3 (95% CI 1.3-4.3)]. In men there was an increased mortality due to cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases and in women due to cancer. Prevalent vertebral deformity predicted an increased risk of any fracture during the forthcoming decade in both men [age-adjusted HR 2.7 (95% CI 1.4-5.3)] and women [age-adjusted HR 1.8 (95% CI 1.1-2.9)]. Prevalent vertebral deformity predicted an increased risk of any subsequent fragility fracture in women [age-adjusted HR 2.0 (95% CI 1.1-3.5)]; however, in men the increased risk was nonsignificant [age-adjusted HR 1.9 (95% CI 0.7-5.1)]. In summary, a prevalent vertebral deformity can predict both increased mortality and increased fracture incidence during the following decade in both men and women. We conclude that prevalent vertebral deformity could be used as a risk factor in both genders for mortality and future fracture.