Introduction Since the introduction of the UK’s National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and its modification, NEWS2, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has caused a worldwide pandemic. NEWS and NEWS2 have good predictive abilities in patients with other infections and sepsis, however there is little evidence of their performance in COVID-19. Methods Using receiver-operating characteristics analyses, we used the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve to evaluate the performance of NEWS or NEWS2 to discriminate the combined outcome of either death or intensive care unit (ICU) admission within 24 h of a vital sign set in five cohorts (COVID-19 POSITIVE, n = 405; COVID-19 NOT DETECTED, n = 1716; COVID-19 NOT TESTED, n = 2686; CONTROL 2018, n = 6273; CONTROL 2019, n = 6523). Results The AUROC values for NEWS or NEWS2 for the combined outcome were: COVID-19 POSITIVE, 0.882 (0.868−0.895); COVID-19 NOT DETECTED, 0.875 (0.861−0.89); COVID-19 NOT TESTED, 0.876 (0.85−0.902); CONTROL 2018, 0.894 (0.884−0.904); CONTROL 2019, 0.842 (0.829−0.855). Conclusions The finding that NEWS or NEWS2 performance was good and similar in all five cohorts (range = 0.842−0.894) suggests that amendments to NEWS or NEWS2, such as the addition of new covariates or the need to change the weighting of existing parameters, are unnecessary when evaluating patients with COVID-19. Our results support the national and international recommendations for the use of NEWS or NEWS2 for the assessment of acute-illness severity in patients with COVID-19.
For organisms that remain active in one of the last undisturbed and pristine dark environments on the planet-the Arctic Polar Night-the moon, stars and aurora borealis may provide important cues to guide distribution and behaviours, including predator-prey interactions. With a changing climate and increased human activities in the Arctic, such natural light sources will in many places be masked by the much stronger illumination from artificial light. Here we show that normal working-light from a ship may disrupt fish and zooplankton behaviour down to at least 200 m depth across an area of >0.125 km 2 around the ship. Both the quantitative and qualitative nature of the disturbance differed between the examined regions. We conclude that biological surveys in the dark from illuminated ships may introduce biases on biological sampling, bioacoustic surveys, and possibly stock assessments of commercial and non-commercial species.
Increasing contributions of prymnesiophytes such as Phaeocystis pouchetii and Emiliania huxleyi to Barents Sea (BS) phytoplankton production have been suggested based on in situ observations of phytoplankton community composition, but the scattered and discontinuous nature of these records confounds simple inference of community change or its relationship to salient environmental variables. However, provided that meaningful assessments of phytoplankton community composition can be inferred based on their optical characteristics, ocean-colour records offer a potential means to develop a synthesis between sporadic in situ observations. Existing remote-sensing algorithms to retrieve phytoplankton functional types based on chlorophyll-a ( chl-a ) concentration or indices of pigment packaging may, however, fail to distinguish Phaeocystis from other blooms of phytoplankton with high pigment packaging, such as diatoms. We develop a novel algorithm to distinguish major phytoplankton functional types in the BS and apply it to the MODIS-Aqua ocean-colour record, to study changes in the composition of BS phytoplankton blooms in July, between 2002 and 2018, creating time series of the spatial distribution and intensity of coccolithophore, diatom and Phaeocystis blooms. We confirm a north-eastward expansion in coccolithophore bloom distribution, identified in previous studies, and suggest an inferred increase in chl-a concentrations, reported by previous researchers, may be partly explained by increasing frequencies of Phaeocystis blooms. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The changing Arctic Ocean: consequences for biological communities, biogeochemical processes and ecosystem functioning’.
A bio-optical model for the Barents Sea is determined from a set of in situ observations of inherent optical properties (IOPs) and associated biogeochemical analyses. The bio-optical model provides a pathway to convert commonly measured parameters from glider-borne sensors (CTD, optical triplet sensor—chlorophyll and CDOM fluorescence, backscattering coefficients) to bulk spectral IOPs (absorption, attenuation and backscattering). IOPs derived from glider observations are subsequently used to estimate remote sensing reflectance spectra that compare well with coincident satellite observations, providing independent validation of the general applicability of the bio-optical model. Various challenges in the generation of a robust bio-optical model involving dealing with partial and limited quantity datasets and the interpretation of data from the optical triplet sensor are discussed. Establishing this quantitative link between glider-borne and satellite-borne data sources is an important step in integrating these data streams and has wide applicability for current and future integrated autonomous observation systems. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The changing Arctic Ocean: consequences for biological communities, biogeochemical processes and ecosystem functioning’.
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