In this research, a number of paired three-dimensional Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM) from CMIP (Climate Model Inter Comparison Project) 5 group with the base period of 1989–2005 have been evaluated and the output of these models was micro-scaled and calibrated by LARS-WG software. The appropriate model was selected to simulate temperature and rainfall data under the emission scenarios of RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the future period of 2020–2050, and then to model the groundwater level of the region, GMS software for both stable and transient states for one water year was calibrated and then was validated by observation data. The results in the future periods showed an increase of 1–1.5 degrees in temperature and an increase in rainfall in the early months of the year to late spring season and a decrease in rainfall in autumn season. Generally, the RCP4.5 scenario showed slightly more annual rainfall increase over the next 30 years compared to the base period than the other two scenarios. The time series investigation of the average of groundwater level shows that the implementation of RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively leads to an average monthly increase of 4.2, 4.3 and 4.6 cm of the groundwater level.
In the present study, the optimal place to excavate extraction wells as the drawdown gets minimized was investigated in a real aquifer. Meshless local Petrov-Galerkin (MLPG) method is used as the simulation method. The closeness of its results to the observational data compared to the finite difference solution showed the higher accuracy of this method as the RMSE for MLPG is 0.757 m while this value for finite difference equaled to 1.197 m. Particle warm algorithm is used as the optimization model. The objective function defined as the summation of the absolute values of difference between the groundwater level before abstraction and the groundwater level after abstraction from wells. In Birjand aquifer which is investigated in transient state, the value of objective function before applying the optimization model was 2.808 m, while in the optimal condition, reached to 1.329 m (47% reduction in drawdown). This fact was investigated and observed in three piezometers. In the first piezometer, the drawdown before and after model enforcement was 0.007 m and 0.003 m, respectively. This reduction occurred in other piezometers as well.
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