Abstract:In the analysis of the potential of applying models to estimate threat of heat waves in Poland up to the end of the 21st century, two discrepant climate change models: the MPI-M-REMO-ECHAM5 and DMI-HIRHAM5-ARPEGE have been used. In this regard, the maximum air temperature was analysed. The accepted definition of a heat wave was 3 and 5 consecutive days of temperatures ≥30°C. According to the more realistic ARPEGE model, after 2040, the number of 3-day heat waves will rise by 370% and after 2070 -460%. In Warsaw, the extent of possible mortality rates due to cardiovascular disease in heat waves amounted to +134% in the period after 2070 according to the ARPEGE model. Key wordsclimate models • heat waves • modelled air temperature • mortality • Poland Geographia Polonica 2013, 86, 4, pp. 295-311 Geographia Polonica 2013, 86, 4, 295-311 296Magdalena Kuchcik a significantly better space resolution for country-sized or regional estimations. For instance, the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report summarizes data from 21 different coupled atmosphereocean global climate models -GCMs (Meehl et al. 2007). Similarly, regional projections are increasingly based on ensembles of high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Over Europe, this approach has been pioneered in the PRUDENCE and ENSEMBLES projects (Christensen & Christensen 2007; Déqué 2009).One of the most possible impacts of climate change due to well documented changes in extreme weather and climate events (IPCC 2012) is a very likely (90-100% probability) increase in the length, frequency, and/or intensity of warm spells or heat waves over most land areas (in Europe the projection of those phenomena is -likely: 66-100% probability). Also there will be a virtually certain (99-100% probability) increase in the frequency and magnitude of warm days and nights on a global scale (in Europe accordingly -very likely).Heat waves are several day or longer periods of exceptionally hot weather, where there is often a sudden rise in mortality rate, particularly among those with cardiovascular disease. Above all, it is caused by excessive stress on the thermoregulatory and cardiovascular systems caused by the body's adaptation processes to high air temperature. Dilation of the blood vessels in a hot environment leads to a rise in the velocity of blood flow and pulse rate, a drop in blood pressure, a rise in blood volume and thus an overall weakening of the body. Heat waves which last for a few days lead to a decrease in haemoglobin, which carries oxygen, an increase in respiratory rate, ie pulmonary ventilation, which leads to aggravation of respiratory diseases (Klonowicz & Kozłowski 1970; Jankowiak 1976). If high air temperature is accompanied by a large inflow of direct sunlight and high vapour pressure then a dangerous increase in systolic and diastolic blood pressure can take place (Biernacki et al. 1965; Zawiślak 1997; Błażejczyk 1998).The first scientific reports on heat waves and an accompanying rise in...

BackgroundThe American Cancer Society, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the National Cancer Institute (NCI), and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR) collaborate annually to provide updated information on cancer occurrence and trends in the United States. This year’s report includes trends in lung cancer incidence and death rates, tobacco use, and tobacco control by state of residence.MethodsInformation on invasive cancers was obtained from the NCI, CDC, and NAACCR and information on mortality from the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics. Annual percentage changes in the age-standardized incidence and death rates (2000 US population standard) for all cancers combined and for the top 15 cancers were estimated by joinpoint analysis of long-term (1975–2005) trends and by least squares linear regression of short-term (1996–2005) trends. All statistical tests were two-sided.ResultsBoth incidence and death rates from all cancers combined decreased statistically significantly (P < .05) in men and women overall and in most racial and ethnic populations. These decreases were driven largely by declines in both incidence and death rates for the three most common cancers in men (lung, colorectum, and prostate) and for two of the three leading cancers in women (breast and colorectum), combined with a leveling off of lung cancer death rates in women. Although the national trend in female lung cancer death rates has stabilized since 2003, after increasing for several decades, there is prominent state and regional variation. Lung cancer incidence and/or death rates among women increased in 18 states, 16 of them in the South or Midwest, where, on average, the prevalence of smoking was higher and the annual percentage decrease in current smoking among adult women was lower than in the West and Northeast. California was the only state with decreasing lung cancer incidence and death rates in women.ConclusionsAlthough the decrease in overall cancer incidence and death rates is encouraging, large state and regional differences in lung cancer trends among women underscore the need to maintain and strengthen many state tobacco control programs.

Cancer death rates for all cancer sites combined and for many common cancers have declined at the same time as the dissemination of guideline-based treatment into the community has increased, although this progress is not shared equally across all racial and ethnic populations. Data from population-based cancer registries, supplemented by linkage with administrative databases, are an important resource for monitoring the quality of cancer treatment. Use of this cancer surveillance system, along with new developments in medical informatics and electronic medical records, may facilitate monitoring of the translation of basic science and clinical advances to cancer prevention, detection, and uniformly high quality of care in all areas and populations of the United States.