Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and delayed implementation of diagnostics have led to poorly defined viral prevalence rates in the United States and elsewhere. To address this, we analyzed seropositivity in 9,089 adults in the United States who had not been diagnosed previously with COVID-19. Individuals with characteristics that reflected the US population (n = 27,716) were selected by quota sampling from 462,949 volunteers. Enrolled participants (n = 11,382) provided medical, geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic information, and dried blood samples. Survey questions coincident with the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey, a large probability-based national survey, were used to adjust for selection bias. The majority (88.7%) of blood samples were collected between May 10th and July 31st, 2020 and were processed using ELISA to measure seropositivity (IgG and IgM antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and the spike protein receptor binding domain). The overall weighted undiagnosed seropositivity estimate was 4.6% (95% CI: 2.6-6.5%) with race, age, sex, ethnicity, and urban/rural subgroup estimates ranging from 1.1% to 14.2%; the highest seropositivity estimates were in African American participants, younger, female, and Hispanic participants, and residents of urban centers. These data indicate that there were 4.8 undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infections for every diagnosed case of COVID-19, and an estimated 16.8 million infections were undiagnosed by mid-July 2020 in the United States.
Background The development of vaccines and therapeutics has relied on healthy volunteer influenza challenge studies. A validated human infection model with wild-type A(H1N1)pdm09 was reported previously. Our objective was to characterize a wild-type influenza A/Bethesda/MM1/H3N2 challenge virus in healthy volunteers. Methods Participants received a single dose of a cell-based, reverse-genetics, Good Manufacturing Practices–produced wild-type influenza A(H3N2)2011 virus intranasally and were isolated at the National Institutes of Health Clinical Center for ≥9 days. Dose escalation was performed from 104 to 107 TCID50 (50% tissue culture infectious dose). Viral shedding and clinical disease were evaluated daily. Results Of 37 participants challenged, 16 (43%) had viral shedding and 27 (73%) developed symptoms, with 12 (32%) participants experiencing mild to moderate influenza disease (MMID), defined as shedding and symptoms. Only participants receiving 106 and 107 TCID50 experienced MMID at 44% and 40%, respectively. Symptom severity peaked on day 3, whereas most viral shedding occurred 1–2 days after challenge. Only 10 (29%) participants had a ≥4-fold rise in hemagglutination inhibition antibody titer after challenge. Conclusions The A/Bethesda/MM1/H3N2 challenge virus safely induced MMID in healthy volunteers, but caused less MMID than the A(H1N1)pdm09 challenge virus even at the highest dose. There was less detection of shedding though the incidence of symptoms was similar to A(H1N1)pdm09. Fewer serum anti-hemagglutinin (HA) antibody responses with less MMID indicate that preexisting immunity factors other than anti-HA antibody may limit shedding in healthy volunteers. This A/Bethesda/MM1/H3N2 challenge virus can be utilized in future studies to further explore pathogenesis and immunity and to evaluate vaccine candidates. Clinical Trials Registration NCT02594189
Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and delayed implementation of diagnostics have led to poorly defined viral prevalence rates. To address this, we analyzed seropositivity in US adults who have not previously been diagnosed with COVID-19. Individuals with characteristics that reflect the US population (n = 11,382) and who had not previously been diagnosed with COVID-19 were selected by quota sampling from 241,424 volunteers (ClinicalTrials.govNCT04334954). Enrolled participants provided medical, geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic information and 9,028 blood samples. The majority (88.7%) of samples were collected between May 10th and July 31st, 2020. Samples were analyzed via ELISA for anti-Spike and anti-RBD antibodies. Estimation of seroprevalence was performed by using a weighted analysis to reflect the US population. We detected an undiagnosed seropositivity rate of 4.6% (95% CI: 2.6 – 6.5%). There was distinct regional variability, with heightened seropositivity in locations of early outbreaks. Subgroup analysis demonstrated that the highest estimated undiagnosed seropositivity within groups was detected in younger participants (ages 18-45, 5.9%), females (5.5%), Black/African American (14.2%), Hispanic (6.1%), and Urban residents (5.3%), and lower undiagnosed seropositivity in those with chronic diseases. During the first wave of infection over the spring/summer of 2020 an estimate of 4.6% of adults had a prior undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infection. These data indicate that there were 4.8 (95% CI: 2.8-6.8) undiagnosed cases for every diagnosed case of COVID-19 during this same time period in the United States, and an estimated 16.8 million undiagnosed cases by mid-July 2020.
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