Objective-To assess the longitudinal course of youth with bipolar spectrum disorders.Methods-413 youth (7-17 years) with bipolar-I (n=244), bipolar-II (n=28), and bipolar NotOtherwise-Specified (NOS) (n=141) were recruited mainly from outpatient clinics at the University of Pittsburgh, Brown, and UCLA. Symptoms were ascertained retrospectively on average every 9.4 months for 4 years using the Longitudinal Interval Follow-up Evaluation. Rates and time to recovery and recurrence and week-by-week symptomatic status were analyzed.Results-Approximately 2.5 years after onset of their index episode, 81.5% of subjects fully recovered, but 1.5 years later 62.5% had a syndromal recurrence, particularly depression. One-third of the subjects had one syndromal recurrence and 30% ≥ 2 syndromal recurrences. The polarity of the index episode predicted the polarity of subsequent episodes. Subjects were symptomatic during 60% of follow-up time, particularly with subsyndromal symptoms of depression and mixed-polarity, with numerous changes in mood polarity. Manic symptomatology, especially syndromal, was less frequent and bipolar-II was mainly manifested by depressive symptoms. Forty-percent of subjects had syndromal and/or subsyndromal symptoms during 75% of follow-up period. During 17% of follow-up time subjects, especially those with bipolar-I, experienced psychosis. Twenty-five percent of bipolar-II subjects converted into bipolar-I and 38% of bipolar-NOS converted into bipolar -I/II. Early-onset, bipolar-NOS, long duration, low socio-economic status, and family history of mood disorders were associated with poorer outcomes.Conclusions-Bipolar spectrum disorder in youth is an episodic disorder characterized by subsyndromal and, less frequently, syndromal episodes with mainly depressive and mixed symptoms and rapid mood changes.

Objective To determine the rate of diagnostic conversion from an operationalized diagnosis of Bipolar Disorder Not Otherwise Specified (BP-NOS) to Bipolar I or Bipolar II Disorders (BP-I/II) in youth over prospective follow-up and to identify factors associated with conversion. Method Subjects were 140 children and adolescents recruited from clinical referrals or advertisement who met operationalized criteria for BP-NOS at intake and participated in at least one follow-up evaluation (91% of initial cohort). Diagnoses were assessed at follow-up interviews using the Longitudinal Interval Follow-Up Evaluation. The mean duration of follow-up was 5 years and the mean interval between assessments was 8.2 months. Results Diagnostic conversion to BP-I/II occurred in 63 subjects (45%): 32 (23%) to BP-I (9 of whom had initially converted to BP-II) and 31 to only BP-II (22%). Median time from intake to conversion was 58 weeks. First or second-degree family history of mania or hypomania was the strongest baseline predictor of diagnostic conversion (p=.006). Over follow-up, conversion was associated with greater intensity of hypomanic symptoms and with greater exposure to specialized, intensive outpatient psychosocial treatments. There was no association between conversion and exposure to treatment with particular medication classes. Conclusions Children and adolescents referred with mood symptoms that meet operationalized criteria for BP-NOS, particularly those with a family history of BP, frequently progress to BP-I or BP-II disorders. Efforts to identify these youth and effectively intervene may have the potential to curtail the progression of mood disorders in this high-risk population.

Context Individuals with early onset of bipolar disorder are at high risk for suicide. Yet, no study to date has examined factors associated with prospective risk for suicide attempts among youth with bipolar disorder. Objective To examine past, intake, and follow-up predictors of prospectively observed suicide attempts among youth with bipolar disorder. Design We interviewed subjects, on average, every 9 months over a mean of 5 years using the Longitudinal Interval Follow-up Evaluation. Setting Outpatient and inpatient units at 3 university centers. Participants A total of 413 youths (mean [SD] age, 12.6 [3.3] years) who received a diagnosis of bipolar I disorder (n=244), bipolar II disorder (n=28), or bipolar disorder not otherwise specified (n=141). Main Outcome Measures Suicide attempt over prospective follow-up and past, intake, and follow-up predictors of suicide attempts. Results Of the 413 youths with bipolar disorder, 76 (18%) made at least 1 suicide attempt within 5 years of study intake; of these, 31 (8% of the entire sample and 41% of attempters) made multiple attempts. Girls had higher rates of attempts than did boys, but rates were similar for bipolar subtypes. The most potent past and intake predictors of prospectively examined suicide attempts included severity of depressive episode at study intake and family history of depression. Follow-up data were aggregated over 8-week intervals; greater number of weeks spent with threshold depression, substance use disorder, and mixed mood symptoms and greater number of weeks spent receiving outpatient psychosocial services in the preceding 8-week period predicted greater likelihood of a suicide attempt. Conclusions Early-onset bipolar disorder is associated with high rates of suicide attempts. Factors such as intake depressive severity and family history of depression should be considered in the assessment of suicide risk among youth with bipolar disorder. Persistent depression, mixed presentations, and active substance use disorder signal imminent risk for suicidal behavior in this population.

Objective The authors sought to identify and evaluate longitudinal mood trajectories and associated baseline predictors in youths with bipolar disorder. Method A total of 367 outpatient youths (mean age, 12.6 years) with bipolar disorder with at least 4 years of follow-up were included. After intake, participants were interviewed on average 10 times (SD=3.2) over a mean of 93 months (SD=8.3). Youths and parents were interviewed for psychopathology, functioning, treatment, and familial psychopathology and functioning. Results Latent class growth analysis showed four different longitudinal mood trajectories: “predominantly euthymic” (24.0%), “moderately euthymic” (34.6%), “ill with improving course” (19.1%), and “predominantly ill” (22.3%). Within each class, youths were euthymic on average 84.4%, 47.3%, 42.8%, and 11.5% of the follow-up time, respectively. Multivariate analyses showed that better course was associated with higher age at onset of mood symptoms, less lifetime family history of bipolar disorder and substance abuse, and less history at baseline of severe depression, manic symptoms, suicidality, subsyndromal mood episodes, and sexual abuse. Most of these factors were more noticeable in the “predominantly euthymic” class. The effects of age at onset were attenuated in youths with lower socioeconomic status, and the effects of depression severity were absent in those with the highest socioeconomic status. Conclusions A substantial proportion of youths with bipolar disorder, especially those with adolescent onset and the above-noted factors, appear to be euthymic over extended periods. Nonetheless, continued syndromal and subsyndromal mood symptoms in all four classes underscore the need to optimize treatment.