findings suggested that predictors of NHP are mainly based on underlying cognitive and/or functional impairment, and associated lack of support and assistance in daily living. However, the methodical quality of studies needs improvement. More theoretical embedding of risk models of NHP would help to establish more clarity in complex relationships in using nursing homes.

This systematic literature review identified and summarized 35 studies that investigated the relationship between multiple chronic conditions (MCCs) and health care utilization outcomes (i.e. physician use, hospital use, medication use) and health care cost outcomes (medication costs, out-of-pocket costs, total health care costs) for elderly general populations. Although synthesis of studies was complicated because of ambiguous definitions and measurements of MCCs, and because of the multitude of outcomes investigated, almost all studies observed a positive association of MCCs and use/costs, many of which found that use/costs significantly increased with each additional condition. Several studies indicate a curvilinear, near exponential relationship between MCCs and costs. The rising prevalence, substantial costs, and the fear that current care arrangements may be inappropriate for many patients with MCCs, bring about a multitude of implications for research and policy, of which the most important are presented and discussed.

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Background/Aims: In the past decades, a substantial number of studies considered factors influencing institutionalisation of persons with dementia. This study reviews recent work on predictors of actual institutionalisation in dementia. Method: Relevant articles were identified by a systematic search of the literature. Studies were considered which included persons aged 65 and over, and whose results were based on prospective design and on multivariate statistical analyses. Results: Forty-two studies were identified. The rate of institutionalisation increased from 20% in the first year after diagnosis to 50% after 5 years. Median time to institutionalisation was estimated between 30 and 40 months. Predictors of institutionalisation were classified according to a provided conceptual framework in the categories sociodemographic and relationship characteristics of persons with dementia and caregivers, primary stressors, secondary stressors and resources. Conclusion: The overview of research activities in this area showed a lack of methodological strength in a large part of identified studies. Nevertheless, a lot of well-examined and less highlighted predictors could be identified.

Background Multimorbidity is a phenomenon with high burden and high prevalence in the elderly. Our previous research has shown that multimorbidity can be divided into the multimorbidity patterns of 1) anxiety, depression, somatoform disorders (ADS) and pain, and 2) cardiovascular and metabolic disorders. However, it is not yet known, how these patterns are influenced by patient characteristics. The objective of this paper is to analyze the association of socio-demographic variables, and especially socio-economic status with multimorbidity in general and with each multimorbidity pattern. Methods The MultiCare Cohort Study is a multicentre, prospective, observational cohort study of 3.189 multimorbid patients aged 65+ randomly selected from 158 GP practices. Data were collected in GP interviews and comprehensive patient interviews. Missing values have been imputed by hot deck imputation based on Gower distance in morbidity and other variables. The association of patient characteristics with the number of chronic conditions is analysed by multilevel mixed-effects linear regression analyses. Results Multimorbidity in general is associated with age (+0.07 chronic conditions per year), gender (-0.27 conditions for female), education (-0.26 conditions for medium and -0.29 conditions for high level vs. low level) and income (-0.27 conditions per logarithmic unit). The pattern of cardiovascular and metabolic disorders shows comparable associations with a higher coefficient for gender (-1.29 conditions for female), while multimorbidity within the pattern of ADS and pain correlates with gender (+0.79 conditions for female), but not with age or socioeconomic status. Conclusions Our study confirms that the morbidity load of multimorbid patients is associated with age, gender and the socioeconomic status of the patients, but there were no effects of living arrangements and marital status. We could also show that the influence of patient characteristics is dependent on the multimorbidity pattern concerned, i.e. there seem to be at least two types of elderly multimorbid patients. First, there are patients with mainly cardiovascular and metabolic disorders, who are more often male, have an older age and a lower socio-economic status. Second, there are patients mainly with ADS and pain-related morbidity, who are more often female and equally distributed across age and socio-economic groups. Trial registration ISRCTN89818205

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Drugs that modify the risk of dementia in the elderly are of potential interest for dementia prevention. Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are widely used to reduce gastric acid production, but information on the risk of dementia is lacking. We assessed association between the use of PPIs and the risk of dementia in elderly people. Data were derived from a longitudinal, multicenter cohort study in elderly primary care patients, the German Study on Aging, Cognition and Dementia in Primary Care Patients (AgeCoDe), including 3,327 community-dwelling persons aged ≥ 75 years. From follow-up 1 to follow-up 4 (follow-up interval 18 months), we identified a total of 431 patients with incident any dementia, including 260 patients with Alzheimer's disease. We used time-dependent Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios of incident any dementia and Alzheimer's disease. Potential confounders included in the analysis comprised age, sex, education, the Apolipoprotein E4 (ApoE4) allele status, polypharmacy, and the comorbidities depression, diabetes, ischemic heart disease, and stroke. Patients receiving PPI medication had a significantly increased risk of any dementia [Hazard ratio (HR) 1.38, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-1.83] and Alzheimer's disease (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.01-2.06) compared with nonusers. Due to the major burden of dementia on public health and the lack of curative medication, this finding is of high interest to research on dementia and provides indication for dementia prevention.

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