Background Seasonal influenza virus is a common cause of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in young children. In 2008, we estimated that 20 million influenza-virus-associated ALRI and 1 million influenza-virus-associated severe ALRI occurred in children under 5 years globally. Despite this substantial burden, only a few low-income and middleincome countries have adopted routine influenza vaccination policies for children and, where present, these have achieved only low or unknown levels of vaccine uptake. Moreover, the influenza burden might have changed due to the emergence and circulation of influenza A/H1N1pdm09. We aimed to incorporate new data to update estimates of the global number of cases, hospital admissions, and mortality from influenza-virus-associated respiratory infections in children under 5 years in 2018.Methods We estimated the regional and global burden of influenza-associated respiratory infections in children under 5 years from a systematic review of 100 studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2018, and a further 57 high-quality unpublished studies. We adapted the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale to assess the risk of bias. We estimated incidence and hospitalisation rates of influenza-virus-associated respiratory infections by severity, case ascertainment, region, and age. We estimated in-hospital deaths from influenza virus ALRI by combining hospital admissions and in-hospital case-fatality ratios of influenza virus ALRI. We estimated the upper bound of influenza virus-associated ALRI deaths based on the number of in-hospital deaths, US paediatric influenza-associated death data, and populationbased childhood all-cause pneumonia mortality data in six sites in low-income and lower-middle-income countries.Findings In 2018, among children under 5 years globally, there were an estimated 109•5 million influenza virus episodes (uncertainty range [UR] 63•1-190•6), 10•1 million influenza-virus-associated ALRI cases (6•8-15•1); 870 000 influenza-virus-associated ALRI hospital admissions (543 000-1 415 000), 15 300 in-hospital deaths (5800-43 800), and up to 34 800 (13 200-97 200) overall influenza-virus-associated ALRI deaths. Influenza virus accounted for 7% of ALRI cases, 5% of ALRI hospital admissions, and 4% of ALRI deaths in children under 5 years. About 23% of the hospital admissions and 36% of the in-hospital deaths were in infants under 6 months. About 82% of the in-hospital deaths occurred in low-income and lower-middle-income countries.Interpretation A large proportion of the influenza-associated burden occurs among young infants and in low-income and lower middle-income countries. Our findings provide new and important evidence for maternal and paediatric influenza immunisation, and should inform future immunisation policy particularly in low-income and middleincome countries.Funding WHO; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The sleep disorder narcolepsy is linked to the HLA-DQB1*0602 haplotype and dysregulation of the hypocretin ligand-hypocretin receptor pathway. Narcolepsy was associated with Pandemrix vaccination (an adjuvanted, influenza pandemic vaccine) and also with infection by influenza virus during the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza pandemic. In contrast, very few cases were reported after Focetria vaccination (a differently manufactured adjuvanted influenza pandemic vaccine). We hypothesized that differences between these vaccines (which are derived from inactivated influenza viral proteins) explain the association of narcolepsy with Pandemrix-vaccinated subjects. A mimic peptide was identified from a surface-exposed region of influenza nucleoprotein A that shared protein residues in common with a fragment of the first extracellular domain of hypocretin receptor 2. A significant proportion of sera from HLA-DQB1*0602 haplotype-positive narcoleptic Finnish patients with a history of Pandemrix vaccination (vaccine-associated narcolepsy) contained antibodies to hypocretin receptor 2 compared to sera from nonnarcoleptic individuals with either 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic influenza infection or history of Focetria vaccination. Antibodies from vaccine-associated narcolepsy sera cross-reacted with both influenza nucleoprotein and hypocretin receptor 2, which was demonstrated by competitive binding using 21-mer peptide (containing the identified nucleoprotein mimic) and 55-mer recombinant peptide (first extracellular domain of hypocretin receptor 2) on cell lines expressing human hypocretin receptor 2. Mass spectrometry indicated that relative to Pandemrix, Focetria contained 72.7% less influenza nucleoprotein. In accord, no durable antibody responses to nucleoprotein were detected in sera from Focetria-vaccinated nonnarcoleptic subjects. Thus, differences in vaccine nucleoprotein content and respective immune response may explain the narcolepsy association with Pandemrix.

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