The Nonlinear autoregressive exogenous (NARX) model, which predicts the current value of a time series based upon its previous values as well as the current and past values of multiple driving (exogenous) series, has been studied for decades. Despite the fact that various NARX models have been developed, few of them can capture the long-term temporal dependencies appropriately and select the relevant driving series to make predictions. In this paper, we propose a dual-stage attention-based recurrent neural network (DA-RNN) to address these two issues. In the first stage, we introduce an input attention mechanism to adaptively extract relevant driving series (a.k.a., input features) at each time step by referring to the previous encoder hidden state. In the second stage, we use a temporal attention mechanism to select relevant encoder hidden states across all time steps. With this dual-stage attention scheme, our model can not only make predictions effectively, but can also be easily interpreted. Thorough empirical studies based upon the SML 2010 dataset and the NASDAQ 100 Stock dataset demonstrate that the DA-RNN can outperform state-of-the-art methods for time series prediction.

There is growing incentive to reduce the power consumed by large-scale data centers that host online services such as banking, retail commerce, and gaming. Virtualization is a promising approach to consolidating multiple online services onto a smaller number of computing resources. A virtualized server environment allows computing resources to be shared among multiple performanceisolated platforms called virtual machines. By dynamically provisioning virtual machines, consolidating the workload, and turning servers on and off as needed, data center opera-A preliminary version of this tors can maintain the desired quality-of-service (QoS) while achieving higher server utilization and energy efficiency. We implement and validate a dynamic resource provisioning framework for virtualized server environments wherein the provisioning problem is posed as one of sequential optimization under uncertainty and solved using a lookahead control scheme. The proposed approach accounts for the switching costs incurred while provisioning virtual machines and explicitly encodes the corresponding risk in the optimization problem. Experiments using the Trade6 enterprise application show that a server cluster managed by the controller conserves, on average, 22% of the power required by a system without dynamic control while still maintaining QoS goals. Finally, we use trace-based simulations to analyze controller performance on server clusters larger than our testbed, and show how concepts from approximation theory can be used to further reduce the computational burden of controlling large systems.

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