This paper explores the relationship between conventional models for binary response such as the probit and logit, and the proportional hazard (PH) and related specifications for grouped duration data. I outline a general class of hazard models for grouped duration data based upon the choice of period‐specific distribution functions, facilitating a thorough analysis of the implications of various specifications and consideration of various issues of model identification. This class of models nests, among others, the proportional hazard, probit, and logit specifications for interval survival. I consider the implications of various specifications for hazard behaviour, focusing on familiar specifications. While the specifications will generally yield results that are quite similar along a number of dimensions, there are significant differences. The probit model generates non‐proportional effects of variables on the discrete hazard, while the logit and PH tend to show only slight non‐proportionality. Furthermore, while the effects of variables on the derivatives are considerably larger for the probit specification, the time‐pattern of the probit effects is relatively insensitive to changes in explanatory variables. I illustrate these issues by providing an example taken from Katz's (1986) unemployment data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics.
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University of Wisconsin Press andThe Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System are collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to The Journal of Human Resources. ABSTRACT This paper analyzes the turnover and promotion of male and female lawyers, using data on two cohorts of lawyers; one which entered law firms between 1969 and 1973, and the other entering between 1980 and 1983. This study considers whether law firm promotion decisions have differed for women, and if so, whether these differences have declined over time.A competing risks duration model is employed to capture the link between the lawyer's decision to stay or leave and the firm's decision to grant or deny promotion. We find that over the entire sample period, women are considerably less likely to be promoted and slightly more likely to leave the firm without being promoted. However, we also find that the parametric differential between men and women in partnership hazards has been reduced substantially, and in the most general of our specifications, eliminated across the two cohorts. In contrast, the gap between male and female job turnover rates does not appear to change over time. We find that the gap between males and females in the cumulative partnership rate at seven years of experience falls from 32 to 14 percent. The turnover gap increases about 0.2 percent, with females slightly more likely to exit from the firm in the later period.
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