No abstract

The Mediterranean region is frequently struck by severe rainfall events causing numerous casualties and several million euros of damages every year. Thus, improving the forecast accuracy is a fundamental goal to limit social and economic damages. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are currently able to produce forecasts at the km scale grid spacing but unreliable surface information and a poor knowledge of the initial state of the atmosphere may produce inaccurate simulations of weather phenomena. The STEAM (SaTellite Earth observation for Atmospheric Modelling) project aims to investigate whether Sentinel satellites constellation weather observation data, in combination with Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations, can be used to better understand and predict with a higher spatio-temporal resolution the atmospheric phenomena resulting in severe weather events. Two heavy rainfall events that occurred in Italy in the autumn of 2017 are studied—a localized and short-lived event and a long-lived one. By assimilating a wide range of Sentinel and GNSS observations in a state-of-the-art NWP model, it is found that the forecasts benefit the most when the model is provided with information on the wind field and/or the water vapor content.

A prototype of a low-cost GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) monitoring system was installed on a deep-seated landslide in north-western Slovenia to test its performance under field conditions. The system consists of newly developed GNSS stations based on low-cost, dual-frequency receivers and open-source GNSS processing software. It automatically receives GNSS data and transmits them over the Internet. The system processes the data server-side and makes them available to the end user via a web portal. The detected surface displacements were evaluated through a comparison with the network of classic geodetic measurements. The results of a nine-month monitoring period using seven GNSS stations provided a detailed insight into the spatial and temporal pattern of deep-seated landslide surface movements. The displacement data were correlated with precipitation measurements at the site to reveal how different parts of the landslide react to rainfall. These data form the basis for the further development of an early-warning system which will help to manage the risk the landslide poses to the local population and infrastructure.

This paper presents the first experimental results of a study on the ingestion in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, of Sentinel satellites and Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) derived products. The experiments concern a flash-floodevent occurred in Tuscany (Central Italy) in September 2017. The rationale is that numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are presently able to produce forecasts with a km scale spatial resolution, but the poor knowledge of the initial state of the atmosphere may imply an inaccurate simulation of the weather phenomena. Hence, to fully exploit the advances in numerical weather modelling, it is necessary to feed them with high spatiotemporal resolution information over the surface boundary and the atmospheric column. In this context, the Copernicus Sentinel satellites represent an important source of data, because they can provide a set of high-resolution observations of physical variables (e.g. soil moisture, land/sea surface temperature, wind speed) used in NWP models runs. The possible availability of a spatially dense network of GNSS stations is also exploited to assimilate water vapour content. Results show that the assimilation of Sentinel-1 derived wind field and GNSS-derivedwater vapour data produce the most positive effects on the performance of the forecast.

The Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) can be used to derive accurately the Zenith Tropospheric Delay (ZTD) under allweather conditions. The derived ZTDs play a vital role in climate studies, weather forecasting and are operationally assimilated into numerical weather prediction models. In this study, variations and statistical analysis of GNSS-derived ZTD over the East African tropical region are analysed. The data is collected from 13 geodetic permanent stations for the period of 4 years from 2013 to 2016. The 13 stations consist of 5 International GNSS Service (IGS) stations plus 8 stations as follows: 4 Africa Array stations and 4 Malawi Rifting stations from Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania and Rwanda. The ZTD time series were processed using goGPS software version 1.0 beta1, a MATLAB based GNSS processing software, originally developed for kinematic applications but recently re-engineered for quasi static applications. The annual variation of the ZTD time series was investigated using Lomb Scargle periodograms. The semi-annual frequency has the dominant power in subregion 1 (latitudes 4 S and 4 N) and the annual frequency has the dominant power in subregion 2 (latitudes 12 S to 4 S). The highest ZTD estimates occur during the rainy seasons, at all stations, and the lowest estimates occur during the dry seasons. The results also show that the ZTD estimates are largest at stations located at low elevation (regions close to the Indian Ocean). The derived ZTDs are compared to the values derived from the GIPSY-OASIS via Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) online Automatic Precise Positioning Service (APPS) and the Unified Environmental Modelling System (UEMS) numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The comparison of goGPS and APPS ZTD at the 13 stations shows an overall average bias, Root Mean Square (RMS) and standard deviation (stdev) of À0.9 mm, 3.2 mm and 3.0 mm respectively, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.974 to 0.999. The comparison of goGPS ZTD against UEMS NWP ZTD at 8 selected stations shows average bias, RMS and stdev of À12.4 mm, 22.0 mm and 17.6 mm respectively, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.802 to 0.974. The agreement between the GPS ZTD and the NWP ZTD indicates that goGPS ZTD can be assimilated into NWP models in the East African region.