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Prediction of Iberian lynx road-mortality in southern Spain: a new approach using the MaxEnt algorithm. In recent years, the Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) has experienced a significant increase in the size of its population and in its distribution. The species currently occupies areas in which it had been extinct for decades and new road mortality black spots have been identified. Its conservation requires an intensive risk assessment of road-deaths in potential future distribution areas. Using the MaxEnt algorithm we aimed to identify the roads where there is a greater risk of road collision for the Iberian lynx. More than 1,150 stretches of road were evaluated in Andalusia (southern Spain). Both road-related and habitat variables were included in the model. A total of 1,395 km of the 7,384 km evaluated (18.9 %) were classified as high risk road. Our results could help plan future conservation strategies. To our knowledge, this is the first time that the MaxEnt algorithm has been used to provide spatially-explicit predictions about wildlife road mortality.

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Over the last 20 years surveys of the population of the Iberian lynx Lynx pardinus in Doñana National Park and its surroundings in Spain have produced estimates of a total population of 50-60 in fragmented patches. The population was estimated to be 26 adults in 2002-2003. Use of camera trapping and other field methods during 2004-2008 allowed us to determine the abundance of the lynx and to estimate demographic statistics. Estimated annual abundance of adult and subadult lynxes averaged 38 individuals (range 35-43).Although the population exhibited a continuous distribution it was concentrated in three major areas, including Doñana National Park, with an average area occupied of 620 km 2 . Our results suggest that the Doñana Iberian lynx population now has a different structure from that in the 1990s and in particular a more continuous spatial distribution. These results indicate an improved, but not secure, scenario for the population. The continuous geographical distribution suggests the population is currently less vulnerable to extinction than 10 years ago. Conservation actions now need to focus outside Doñana National Park on the reconversion of pine plantations into original Mediterranean scrubland habitat, and the continuity and intensification of ongoing restocking with rabbits in fenced areas.

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