We describe a Bayesian projection model to produce country-specific projections of the total fertility rate (TFR) for all countries. The model decomposes the evolution of TFR into three phases: pre-transition high fertility, the fertility transition, and post-transition low fertility. The model for the fertility decline builds on the United Nations Population Division’s current deterministic projection methodology, which assumes that fertility will eventually fall below replacement level. It models the decline in TFR as the sum of two logistic functions that depend on the current TFR level, and a random term. A Bayesian hierarchical model is used to project future TFR based on both the country’s TFR history and the pattern of all countries. It is estimated from United Nations estimates of past TFR in all countries using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The post-transition low fertility phase is modeled using an autoregressive model, in which long-term TFR projections converge toward and oscillate around replacement level. The method is evaluated using out-of-sample projections for the period since 1980 and the period since 1995, and is found to be well calibrated.

Objective. To describe dermatologic manifestations of the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) and to investigate possible correlations between livedo reticularis and other APS manifestations.Methods. We conducted a single-center study of 200 consecutive patients with primary or systemic lupus erythematosus-related APS. To qualify for the study, patients had to fulfill clinical and laboratory criteria from the most recent international consensus statement on classification of definite APS. Dermatologic manifestations were systematically evaluated by a dermatologist. Only dermatologic lesions that may be related to APS were included in the analyses. Correlations between livedo reticularis and other APS manifestations were determined using Fisher's 2-tailed, chi-square, and nonparametric Mann-Whitney tests.Results. Dermatologic manifestations were noted in 49% of the patients and were the presenting manifestations in 30.5%. Livedo reticularis was the most frequent manifestation, observed in 25.5% of the patients. Livedo reticularis was shown to be significantly associated with cerebral or ocular ischemic arterial events (odds ratio [OR] 10.8, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 5.2-22.5), seizures (OR 6.5, 95% CI 2.6-16), all arterial events (OR 6, 95% CI 2.9-12.6), heart valve abnormalities detected on echocardiography (OR 7.3, 95% CI 3.6-14.7), and arterial systemic hypertension (>160/90 mm Hg) (OR 2.9, 95% CI 1.5-5.7). Conversely, it was observed with decreased frequency in patients with only venous thrombosis (OR 0.2, 95% CI 0.1-0.5).Conclusion. The dermatologic manifestations of APS are frequently the presenting feature of the syndrome, and livedo reticularis is significantly associated with the arterial subset of APS.

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Livedoid vasculopathy is a rare thrombotic cutaneous disease. This observational study aimed to assess the clinical and biological features of livedoid vasculopathy and the efficacy of treatments. Patients enrolled had typical livedoid vasculopathy both clinically and histologically. Investigation of thrombophilia was performed. Electromyography was undertaken in the presence of symptoms suggesting peripheral neuropathy. Eighteen women and 8 men were included, with a mean age of 35.5 years at onset. Twenty patients had at least one thrombophilia factor. Ten patients had a peripheral neuropathy with 2 of these patients demonstrating a specific thrombo-occlusive vasculopathy on muscle biopsy. Anticoagulation with low molecular weight heparin was the most prescribed therapy and was associated with the best outcome (effective in 14 patients). Eight patients had severe disease refractory to anticoagulation and required intravenous immunoglobulins, producing a good response in 6 patients.