Clinical features and natural history of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) differ widely among different countries and during different phases of the pandemia. Here, we aimed to evaluate the case fatality rate (CFR) and to identify predictors of mortality in a cohort of COVID-19 patients admitted to three hospitals of Northern Italy between March 1 and April 28, 2020. All these patients had a confirmed diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection by molecular methods. During the study period 504/1697 patients died; thus, overall CFR was 29.7%. We looked for predictors of mortality in a subgroup of 486 patients (239 males, 59%; median age 71 years) for whom sufficient clinical data were available at data cut-off. Among the demographic and clinical variables considered, age, a diagnosis of cancer, obesity and current smoking independently predicted mortality. When laboratory data were added to the model in a further subgroup of patients, age, the diagnosis of cancer, and the baseline PaO2/FiO2 ratio were identified as independent predictors of mortality. In conclusion, the CFR of hospitalized patients in Northern Italy during the ascending phase of the COVID-19 pandemic approached 30%. The identification of mortality predictors might contribute to better stratification of individual patient risk.
Introduction. The clinical course of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is highly heterogenous, ranging from asymptomatic to fatal forms. The identification of clinical and laboratory predictors of poor prognosis may assist clinicians in monitoring strategies and therapeutic decisions. Materials and Methods. In this study, we retrospectively assessed the prognostic value of a simple tool, the complete blood count, on a cohort of 664 patients ( F 260; 39%, median age 70 (56-81) years) hospitalized for COVID-19 in Northern Italy. We collected demographic data along with complete blood cell count; moreover, the outcome of the hospital in-stay was recorded. Results. At data cut-off, 221/664 patients (33.3%) had died and 453/664 (66.7%) had been discharged. Red cell distribution width (RDW) ( χ 2 10.4; p < 0.001 ), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte (NL) ratio ( χ 2 7.6; p = 0.006 ), and platelet count ( χ 2 5.39; p = 0.02 ), along with age ( χ 2 87.6; p < 0.001 ) and gender ( χ 2 17.3; p < 0.001 ), accurately predicted in-hospital mortality. Hemoglobin levels were not associated with mortality. We also identified the best cut-off for mortality prediction: a NL ratio > 4.68 was characterized by an odds ratio for in-hospital mortality OR = 3.40 (2.40-4.82), while the OR for a RDW > 13.7 % was 4.09 (2.87-5.83); a platelet count > 166,000 /μL was, conversely, protective (OR: 0.45 (0.32-0.63)). Conclusion. Our findings arise the opportunity of stratifying COVID-19 severity according to simple lab parameters, which may drive clinical decisions about monitoring and treatment.
Germline mutations on the CDKN2A gene, the most important known genetic factors associated with cutaneous melanomas (CMs), predispose carriers to multiple primary CMs (MPMs) with higher frequency and younger onset compared to non-carriers. Most of the largest published studies concerning clinical and histological characteristics of CMs with CDKN2A mutation carriers did not specify if the described CMs are first or subsequent to the first, and they used sporadic CMs from non-genotyped patients as controls. We conducted a single-centre observational study to compare clinical and histological CM features of 32 unrelated carriers (MUT) of 5 germline CDKN2A mutations (one of which was never previously described) compared to 100 genotyped wild-type (WT) patients. We stratified the data based on time of diagnosis, anatomical site and histological subtype of CMs, demonstrating several significant unreported differences between the two groups. MUT developed a higher number of dysplastic nevi and MPMs. We proved for the first time that anatomical distribution of CMs in MUT was independent of gender, unlike WTs. MUTs developed in situ and superficial spreading melanomas (SSMs) more frequently, with significantly higher number of SSMs on the head/neck. In MUTs, Breslow thickness was significantly lower for all invasive CMs. When CMs were stratified on the basis of the time of occurrence, statistical significance was maintained only for SSMs subsequent to the first. In WTs, Clark level was significantly higher, and ulceration was more prevalent than in MUTs. Significant differences in ulceration were observed only in SSMs. In nodular CMs, we did not find differences in terms of Breslow thickness or ulceration between WTs and MUTs. In situ CMs developed 10 years earlier in MUTs with respect to WTs, whereas no significant differences were observed in invasive CMs. In contrast to those reported previously by other authors, we did not find a difference in skin phototype.
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