SummaryBackgroundUnderweight, overweight, and obesity in childhood and adolescence are associated with adverse health consequences throughout the life-course. Our aim was to estimate worldwide trends in mean body-mass index (BMI) and a comprehensive set of BMI categories that cover underweight to obesity in children and adolescents, and to compare trends with those of adults.MethodsWe pooled 2416 population-based studies with measurements of height and weight on 128·9 million participants aged 5 years and older, including 31·5 million aged 5–19 years. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2016 in 200 countries for mean BMI and for prevalence of BMI in the following categories for children and adolescents aged 5–19 years: more than 2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference for children and adolescents (referred to as moderate and severe underweight hereafter), 2 SD to more than 1 SD below the median (mild underweight), 1 SD below the median to 1 SD above the median (healthy weight), more than 1 SD to 2 SD above the median (overweight but not obese), and more than 2 SD above the median (obesity).FindingsRegional change in age-standardised mean BMI in girls from 1975 to 2016 ranged from virtually no change (−0·01 kg/m2 per decade; 95% credible interval −0·42 to 0·39, posterior probability [PP] of the observed decrease being a true decrease=0·5098) in eastern Europe to an increase of 1·00 kg/m2 per decade (0·69–1·35, PP>0·9999) in central Latin America and an increase of 0·95 kg/m2 per decade (0·64–1·25, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. The range for boys was from a non-significant increase of 0·09 kg/m2 per decade (−0·33 to 0·49, PP=0·6926) in eastern Europe to an increase of 0·77 kg/m2 per decade (0·50–1·06, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Trends in mean BMI have recently flattened in northwestern Europe and the high-income English-speaking and Asia-Pacific regions for both sexes, southwestern Europe for boys, and central and Andean Latin America for girls. By contrast, the rise in BMI has accelerated in east and south Asia for both sexes, and southeast Asia for boys. Global age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 0·7% (0·4–1·2) in 1975 to 5·6% (4·8–6·5) in 2016 in girls, and from 0·9% (0·5–1·3) in 1975 to 7·8% (6·7–9·1) in 2016 in boys; the prevalence of moderate and severe underweight decreased from 9·2% (6·0–12·9) in 1975 to 8·4% (6·8–10·1) in 2016 in girls and from 14·8% (10·4–19·5) in 1975 to 12·4% (10·3–14·5) in 2016 in boys. Prevalence of moderate and severe underweight was highest in India, at 22·7% (16·7–29·6) among girls and 30·7% (23·5–38·0) among boys. Prevalence of obesity was more than 30% in girls in Nauru, the Cook Islands, and Palau; and boys in the Cook Islands, Nauru, Palau, Niue, and American Samoa in 2016. Prevalence of obesity was about 20% or more in several countries in Polynesia and Micronesia, the Middle East and north Africa, the Caribbean, and the USA. In 2016, 75 (44–117) million girls and 117 (70–178) million boys wor...

SummaryBackgroundOne of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes.MethodsWe pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence—defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs—in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue.FindingsWe used data from 751 studies including 4 372 000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4·3% (95% credible interval 2·4–7·0) in 1980 to 9·0% (7·2–11·1) in 2014 in men, and from 5·0% (2·9–7·9) to 7·9% (6·4–9·7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28·5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39·7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31·8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target.InterpretationSince 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.FundingWellcome Trust.

SummaryBackgroundRaised blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated worldwide trends in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of, and number of people with, raised blood pressure, defined as systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher or diastolic blood pressure of 90 mm Hg or higher.MethodsFor this analysis, we pooled national, subnational, or community population-based studies that had measured blood pressure in adults aged 18 years and older. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2015 in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of raised blood pressure for 200 countries. We calculated the contributions of changes in prevalence versus population growth and ageing to the increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure.FindingsWe pooled 1479 studies that had measured the blood pressures of 19·1 million adults. Global age-standardised mean systolic blood pressure in 2015 was 127·0 mm Hg (95% credible interval 125·7–128·3) in men and 122·3 mm Hg (121·0–123·6) in women; age-standardised mean diastolic blood pressure was 78·7 mm Hg (77·9–79·5) for men and 76·7 mm Hg (75·9–77·6) for women. Global age-standardised prevalence of raised blood pressure was 24·1% (21·4–27·1) in men and 20·1% (17·8–22·5) in women in 2015. Mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure decreased substantially from 1975 to 2015 in high-income western and Asia Pacific countries, moving these countries from having some of the highest worldwide blood pressure in 1975 to the lowest in 2015. Mean blood pressure also decreased in women in central and eastern Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and, more recently, central Asia, Middle East, and north Africa, but the estimated trends in these super-regions had larger uncertainty than in high-income super-regions. By contrast, mean blood pressure might have increased in east and southeast Asia, south Asia, Oceania, and sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, central and eastern Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, and south Asia had the highest blood pressure levels. Prevalence of raised blood pressure decreased in high-income and some middle-income countries; it remained unchanged elsewhere. The number of adults with raised blood pressure increased from 594 million in 1975 to 1·13 billion in 2015, with the increase largely in low-income and middle-income countries. The global increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure is a net effect of increase due to population growth and ageing, and decrease due to declining age-specific prevalence.InterpretationDuring the past four decades, the highest worldwide blood pressure levels have shifted from high-income countries to low-income countries in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa due to opposite trends, while blood pressure has been persistently high in central and eastern Europe.FundingWellcome Trust.

Gallbladder cancer is usually associated with gallstone disease, late diagnosis, unsatisfactory treatment, and poor prognosis. We report here the worldwide geographical distribution of gallbladder cancer, review the main etiologic hypotheses, and provide some comments on perspectives for prevention. The highest incidence rate of gallbladder cancer is found among populations of the Andean area, North American Indians, and Mexican Americans. Gallbladder cancer is up to three times higher among women than men in all populations. The highest incidence rates in Europe are found in Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia. Incidence rates in other regions of the world are relatively low. The highest mortality rates are also reported from South America, 3.5–15.5 per 100,000 among Chilean Mapuche Indians, Bolivians, and Chilean Hispanics. Intermediate rates, 3.7 to 9.1 per 100,000, are reported from Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, and Brazil. Mortality rates are low in North America, with the exception of high rates among American Indians in New Mexico (11.3 per 100,000) and among Mexican Americans. The main associated risk factors identified so far include cholelithiasis (especially untreated chronic symptomatic gallstones), obesity, reproductive factors, chronic infections of the gallbladder, and environmental exposure to specific chemicals. These suspected factors likely represent promoters of carcinogenesis. The main limitations of epidemiologic studies on gallbladder cancer are the small sample sizes and specific problems in quantifying exposure to putative risk factors. The natural history of gallbladder disease should be characterized to support the allocation of more resources for early treatment of symptomatic gallbladder disease in high–risk populations. Secondary prevention of gallbladder cancer could be effective if supported by cost–effective studies of prophylactic cholecystectomy among asymptomatic gallstone patients in high–risk areas.

Summary Background Elevated blood pressure and glucose, serum cholesterol, and body mass index (BMI) are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs); some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and diabetes. We estimated CVD, CKD, and diabetes mortality attributable to these four cardio-metabolic risk factors for all countries and regions between 1980 and 2010. Methods We used data on risk factor exposure by country, age group, and sex from pooled analysis of population-based health surveys. Relative risks for cause-specific mortality were obtained from pooling of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions (PAF) for each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multi-causality and for mediation of the effects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specific PAFs by the number of disease-specific deaths from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all inputs to the final estimates. Findings In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for dying from CVDs, CKD, and diabetes in every region, causing over 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths; and cholesterol for 10%. After accounting for multi-causality, 63% (10.8 million deaths; 95% confidence interval 10.1–11.5) of deaths from these diseases were attributable to the combined effect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7.1 million deaths; 6.6–7.6) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled between 1980 and 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates attributable to these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100,000 among men in Belarus, Mongolia, and Kazakhstan, but were below 130 deaths per 100,000 for women and below 200 for men in some high-income countries like Japan, Singapore, South Korea, France, Spain, The Netherlands, Australia, and Canada. Interpretations The salient features of the cardio-metabolic epidemic at the beginning of the twenty-first century are the large role of high blood pressure and an increasing impact of obesity and diabetes. There has been a shift in the mortality burden from high-income to low- and middle-income countries.

With an overall prevalence of 10-20%, gallstone disease (cholelithiasis) represents one of the most frequent and economically relevant health problems of industrialized countries. We performed an association scan of >500,000 SNPs in 280 individuals with gallstones and 360 controls. A follow-up study of the 235 most significant SNPs in 1,105 affected individuals and 873 controls replicated the disease association of SNP A-1791411 in ABCG8 (allelic P value P(CCA) = 4.1 x 10(-9)), which was subsequently attributed to coding variant rs11887534 (D19H). Additional replication was achieved in 728 German (P = 2.8 x 10(-7)) and 167 Chilean subjects (P = 0.02). The overall odds ratio for D19H carriership was 2.2 (95% confidence interval: 1.8-2.6, P = 1.4 x 10(-14)) in the full German sample. Association was stronger in subjects with cholesterol gallstones (odds ratio = 3.3), suggesting that His19 might be associated with a more efficient transport of cholesterol into the bile.

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Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5–22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3–19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8–144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.13410.001