SummaryBackgroundPublished findings on breast cancer risk associated with different types of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) are inconsistent, with limited information on long-term effects. We bring together the epidemiological evidence, published and unpublished, on these associations, and review the relevant randomised evidence.MethodsPrincipal analyses used individual participant data from all eligible prospective studies that had sought information on the type and timing of MHT use; the main analyses are of individuals with complete information on this. Studies were identified by searching many formal and informal sources regularly from Jan 1, 1992, to Jan 1, 2018. Current users were included up to 5 years (mean 1·4 years) after last-reported MHT use. Logistic regression yielded adjusted risk ratios (RRs) comparing particular groups of MHT users versus never users.FindingsDuring prospective follow-up, 108 647 postmenopausal women developed breast cancer at mean age 65 years (SD 7); 55 575 (51%) had used MHT. Among women with complete information, mean MHT duration was 10 years (SD 6) in current users and 7 years (SD 6) in past users, and mean age was 50 years (SD 5) at menopause and 50 years (SD 6) at starting MHT. Every MHT type, except vaginal oestrogens, was associated with excess breast cancer risks, which increased steadily with duration of use and were greater for oestrogen-progestagen than oestrogen-only preparations. Among current users, these excess risks were definite even during years 1–4 (oestrogen-progestagen RR 1·60, 95% CI 1·52–1·69; oestrogen-only RR 1·17, 1·10–1·26), and were twice as great during years 5–14 (oestrogen-progestagen RR 2·08, 2·02–2·15; oestrogen-only RR 1·33, 1·28–1·37). The oestrogen-progestagen risks during years 5–14 were greater with daily than with less frequent progestagen use (RR 2·30, 2·21–2·40 vs 1·93, 1·84–2·01; heterogeneity p<0·0001). For a given preparation, the RRs during years 5–14 of current use were much greater for oestrogen-receptor-positive tumours than for oestrogen-receptor-negative tumours, were similar for women starting MHT at ages 40–44, 45–49, 50–54, and 55–59 years, and were attenuated by starting after age 60 years or by adiposity (with little risk from oestrogen-only MHT in women who were obese). After ceasing MHT, some excess risk persisted for more than 10 years; its magnitude depended on the duration of previous use, with little excess following less than 1 year of MHT use.InterpretationIf these associations are largely causal, then for women of average weight in developed countries, 5 years of MHT, starting at age 50 years, would increase breast cancer incidence at ages 50–69 years by about one in every 50 users of oestrogen plus daily progestagen preparations; one in every 70 users of oestrogen plus intermittent progestagen preparations; and one in every 200 users of oestrogen-only preparations. The corresponding excesses from 10 years of MHT would be about twice as great.FundingCancer Research UK and the Medical Research Council.

Carriers of BRCA1/BRCA2 mutations are exposed to higher titres of oestradiol and progesterone-known risk-factors for breast cancer. Higher titres of oestradiol in carriers are compatible with this hormone having a role in ovarian carcinogenesis in such women. Our findings could not be explained by differential contraceptive pill use.

ObjectivesThis paper describes the methods used in the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership Module 4 Survey (ICBPM4) which examines time intervals and routes to cancer diagnosis in 10 jurisdictions. We present the study design with defining and measuring time intervals, identifying patients with cancer, questionnaire development, data management and analyses.Design and settingRecruitment of participants to the ICBPM4 survey is based on cancer registries in each jurisdiction. Questionnaires draw on previous instruments and have been through a process of cognitive testing and piloting in three jurisdictions followed by standardised translation and adaptation. Data analysis focuses on comparing differences in time intervals and routes to diagnosis in the jurisdictions.ParticipantsOur target is 200 patients with symptomatic breast, lung, colorectal and ovarian cancer in each jurisdiction. Patients are approached directly or via their primary care physician (PCP). Patients’ PCPs and cancer treatment specialists (CTSs) are surveyed, and ‘data rules’ are applied to combine and reconcile conflicting information. Where CTS information is unavailable, audit information is sought from treatment records and databases.Main outcomesReliability testing of the patient questionnaire showed that agreement was complete (κ=1) in four items and substantial (κ=0.8, 95% CI 0.333 to 1) in one item. The identification of eligible patients is sufficient to meet the targets for breast, lung and colorectal cancer. Initial patient and PCP survey response rates from the UK and Sweden are comparable with similar published surveys. Data collection was completed in early 2016 for all cancer types.ConclusionAn international questionnaire-based survey of patients with cancer, PCPs and CTSs has been developed and launched in 10 jurisdictions. ICBPM4 will help to further understand international differences in cancer survival by comparing time intervals and routes to cancer diagnosis.

Purpose The TP53 tumor suppressor gene is mutated in >95% of high grade serous ovarian cancers. Detecting an autologous antibody response to TP53 might improve early detection. Experimental design An immunoassay was developed to measure TP53 autoantibody in sera from 378 cases of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer and in 944 age-matched healthy controls from the United States, Australia and the United Kingdom. Serial preclinical samples from cases and controls were also assayed from the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). Results Using a cut-off of 78 U/mL to achieve a specificity of 97.4%, TP53 autoantibody were elevated in 30% of 50 cases from MD Anderson, 21.3% of 108 cases from the Australian Ovarian Cancer Study and 21% of 220 cases from the UKCTOCS. Among 164 cases with rising CA125 detected with the UKCTOCS risk of ovarian cancer algorithm (ROCA), 20.7% had elevated TP53 autoantibody. In cases missed by the ROCA, 16% of cases had elevated TP53 autoantibody. Of the 34 ovarian cancer cases detected with the ROCA, TP53 autoantibody titers were elevated 11.0 months prior to CA125. In the 9 cases missed by the ROCA, TP53 autoantibody was elevated 22.9 months before cancer diagnosis. Similar sensitivity was obtained using assays with specific mutant and wild-type TP53. Conclusion TP53 autoantibody levels provide a biomarker with clinically significant lead time over elevation of CA125 or an elevated ROCA value. Quantitative assessment of autoantibodies in combination with CA125 hold promise for earlier detection of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer.