BACKGROUND-Whether a broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) can be used to prevent human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) acquisition is unclear.METHODS-We enrolled at-risk cisgender men and transgender persons in the Americas and Europe in the HVTN 704/HPTN 085 trial and at-risk women in sub-Saharan Africa in the HVTN 703/HPTN 081 trial. Participants were randomly assigned to receive, every 8 weeks, infusions of a bnAb (VRC01) at a dose of either 10 or 30 mg per kilogram (low-dose group and high-dose group, respectively) or placebo, for 10 infusions in total. HIV-1 testing was performed every 4 weeks. The VRC01 80% inhibitory concentration (IC 80 ) of acquired isolates was measured with the TZM-bl assay.

The Antibody Mediated Prevention trials showed that the broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) VRC01 prevented acquisition of human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) sensitive to VRC01. Using AMP trial data, here we show that the predicted serum neutralization 80% inhibitory dilution titer (PT80) biomarker—which quantifies the neutralization potency of antibodies in an individual’s serum against an HIV-1 isolate—can be used to predict HIV-1 prevention efficacy. Similar to the results of nonhuman primate studies, an average PT80 of 200 (meaning a bnAb concentration 200-fold higher than that required to reduce infection by 80% in vitro) against a population of probable exposing viruses was estimated to be required for 90% prevention efficacy against acquisition of these viruses. Based on this result, we suggest that the goal of sustained PT80 <200 against 90% of circulating viruses can be achieved by promising bnAb regimens engineered for long half-lives. We propose the PT80 biomarker as a surrogate endpoint for evaluatinon of bnAb regimens, and as a tool for benchmarking candidate bnAb-inducing vaccines.

The phase 2b AMP trials are testing whether the broadly neutralising antibody VRC01 prevents HIV-1 infection in two cohorts: women in sub-Saharan Africa, and men and transgender persons who have sex with men (MSM/TG) in the Americas and Switzerland. We used nonlinear mixed effects modelling of longitudinal serum VRC01 concentrations to characterise pharmacokinetics and predict HIV-1 neutralisation coverage. We found that body weight significantly influenced clearance, and that the mean peripheral volume of distribution, steady state volume of distribution, elimination half-life, and accumulation ratio were significantly higher in MSM/TG than in women. Neutralisation coverage was predicted to be higher in the first (versus second) half of a given 8-week infusion interval, and appeared to be higher in MSM/TG than in women overall. Study cohort differences in pharmacokinetics and neutralisation coverage provide insights for interpreting the AMP results and for investigating how VRC01 concentration and neutralisation correlate with HIV incidence.

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