BackgroundCanine rabies is one of the most important and feared zoonotic diseases in the world. In some regions rabies elimination is being successfully coordinated, whereas in others rabies is endemic and continues to spread to uninfected areas. As epidemics emerge, both accepted and contentious control methods are used, as questions remain over the most effective strategy to eliminate rabies. The Indonesian island of Bali was rabies-free until 2008 when an epidemic in domestic dogs began, resulting in the deaths of over 100 people. Here we analyze data from the epidemic and compare the effectiveness of control methods at eliminating rabies.Methodology/Principal FindingsUsing data from Bali, we estimated the basic reproductive number, R 0, of rabies in dogs, to be ∼1·2, almost identical to that obtained in ten–fold less dense dog populations and suggesting rabies will not be effectively controlled by reducing dog density. We then developed a model to compare options for mass dog vaccination. Comprehensive high coverage was the single most important factor for achieving elimination, with omission of even small areas (<0.5% of the dog population) jeopardizing success. Parameterizing the model with data from the 2010 and 2011 vaccination campaigns, we show that a comprehensive high coverage campaign in 2012 would likely result in elimination, saving ∼550 human lives and ∼$15 million in prophylaxis costs over the next ten years.Conclusions/SignificanceThe elimination of rabies from Bali will not be achieved through achievable reductions in dog density. To ensure elimination, concerted high coverage, repeated, mass dog vaccination campaigns are necessary and the cooperation of all regions of the island is critical. Momentum is building towards development of a strategy for the global elimination of canine rabies, and this study offers valuable new insights about the dynamics and control of this disease, with immediate practical relevance.

The participatory disease surveillance and response (PDSR) approach to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Indonesia has evolved significantly from the participatory disease surveillance (PDS) system developed for rinderpest eradication in Africa and Pakistan. The first phase of the PDSR project emphasized the detection and control of HPAI by separate PDS and participatory disease response teams primarily in sector 4 poultry at the household level. Lessons learned during the first phase were taken into account in the design of the second phase of the project, which has sought to further strengthen management of disease prevention and control activities by improving technical approaches, increasing active participation of key stakeholders, including local and central governments, and focusing on the village level. The ongoing evolution of the PDSR program aims to establish a sustainable community-based program within provincial and district livestock services that enhances the prevention and control of not only HPAI, but also other zoonotic and priority animal diseases.

In Bangladesh, the poultry industry is an economically and socially important sector, but it is persistently threatened by the effects of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza. Thus, identifying the optimal control policy in response to an emerging disease outbreak is a key challenge for policy-makers. To inform this aim, a common approach is to carry out simulation studies comparing plausible strategies, while accounting for known capacity restrictions. In this study we perform simulations of a previously developed H5N1 influenza transmission model framework, fitted to two separate historical outbreaks, to assess specific control objectives related to the burden or duration of H5N1 outbreaks among poultry farms in the Dhaka division of Bangladesh. In particular, we explore the optimal implementation of ring culling, ring vaccination and active surveillance measures when presuming disease transmission predominately occurs from premises-to-premises, versus a setting requiring the inclusion of external factors. Additionally, we determine the sensitivity of the management actions under consideration to differing levels of capacity constraints and outbreaks with disparate transmission dynamics. While we find that reactive culling and vaccination policies should pay close attention to these factors to ensure intervention targeting is optimised, across multiple settings the top performing control action amongst those under consideration were targeted proactive surveillance schemes. Our findings may advise the type of control measure, plus its intensity, that could potentially be applied in the event of a developing outbreak of H5N1 amongst originally H5N1 virus-free commercially-reared poultry in the Dhaka division of Bangladesh.

In the re-emergence of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), live bird markets have been identified to play a critical role. In this repeated cross-sectional study, we combined surveillance data collected monthly on Jakarta’s live bird markets over a five-year period, with risk factors related to the structure and management of live bird markets, the trading and slaughtering of birds at these markets, and environmental and demographic conditions in the areas where the markets were located. Over the study period 36.7% (95% CI: 35.1, 38.3) of samples (N = 1315) tested HPAI H5 virus positive. Using General Estimation Equation approaches to account for repeated observations over time, we explored the association between HPAI H5 virus prevalence and potential risk factors. Markets where only live birds and carcasses were sold, but no slaughtering was conducted at or at the vicinity of the markets, had a significantly reduced chance of being positive for H5 virus (OR = 0.2, 95% CI 0.1–0.5). Also, markets, that used display tables for poultry carcasses made from wood, had reduced odds of being H5 virus positive (OR = 0.7, 95% CI 0.5–1.0), while having at least one duck sample included in the pool of samples collected at the market increased the chance of being H5 virus positive (OR = 5.7, 95% CI 3.6–9.2). Markets where parent stock was traded, were more at risk of being H5 virus positive compared to markets where broilers were traded. Finally, the human population density in the district, the average distance between markets and origins of poultry sold at markets and the total rainfall per month were all positively associated with higher H5 virus prevalence. In summary, our results highlight that a combination of factors related to trading and marketing processes and environmental pressures need to be considered to reduce H5 virus infection risk for customers at urban live bird markets. In particular, the relocation of slaughter areas to well-managed separate locations should be considered.

One of the key strategic objectives of the World Health Organisation's global antimicrobial resistance (AMR) action plan is to improve public awareness and understanding of this issue. Very few AMR awareness campaigns have targeted the animal production sector, particularly in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) where rural communities can be geographically difficult to access via traditional face-to-face community engagement methods. Aquaculture is a major food production industry in Bangladesh and across Asia, an area which poses a significant risk to global AMR dissemination. In this pilot study, we sought to investigate the potential for digital communication materials to rapidly and effectively communicate AMR messages to rural aquaculture farmers in Bangladesh. Working with stakeholders from the Bangladesh aquaculture industry, we developed a 4-minute digital animation designed specifically for this audience and assessed its capacity to engage and communicate AMR messages to farmers. We then conducted a small-scale social media campaign, to determine the potential for rapidly disseminating AMR awareness materials to a large audience across Bangladesh, where there is an extensive 4 G internet network and an everincreasing proportion of the population (57% as of December 2019) have mobile internet access. Thirty-six farmers were surveyed: all of them liked this method of communication and 97% said it would change the way they use antibiotics in the future. Through the social media campaign, the animation received 9,100 views in the first 2 weeks alone. Although preliminary, these results demonstrate the huge potential for digital communication methods for the rapid and widespread communication of AMR awareness materials to rural aquaculture communities in Bangladesh and across Asia. Our results support the need for more research into the most appropriate and effective content of AMR awareness campaigns for aquaculture communities and question the need for explaining the science underlying AMR in such communication materials.